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What Are Push Polls, Anyway?
Campaigns & Elections, May, 2000 by Karl G. Feld
A quick glance at press stories and official candidate and organizational statements released over the last four years clearly indicates that there is little consensus in the wider political community of what a "push poll" might actually be.
ANOTHER ELECTION is upon us. With it comes the campaign telephone calls to voters for opinion research, voter identification, GOTV, advocacy and, inevitably, for "push polls."
A quick glance at press stories and official candidate and organizational statements released over the past four years clearly indicates that there is little consensus in the wider political community of what a "push poll" might actually be. Yet, confusing accusations by media and campaigns of push polling activities abound, accusations damaging to the research industry as a whole.
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The tremendous growth of Web surveys only adds to the problem. The ease with which these surveys have already been abused to "push" respondents and other data consumers -- combined with the ease with which the results can be disseminated -- adds a whole new threat to opinion research.
As researchers head into another period of concentrated phone work, short deadlines and intense media pressure, it might be a good idea to review the characteristics of legitimate research versus push polling. The National Council on Public Polls (NCPP) defined a push poll in a 1995 press release as:
[ldots]a telemarketing technique in which telephone calls are used to canvass vast numbers of potential voters, feeding them false and damaging 'information' about a candidate under the guise of taking a poll to see how this 'information' affects voter preferences. In fact, the intent is to 'push' the voters away from one candidate and toward the opposing candidate. This is clearly political telemarketing, using innuendo and, in many cases, clearly false information to influence voters; there is no intent to conduct research.
This definition closely matches those used by the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) in its 1996 "Statement Condemning Push Polls," the American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) in its June 1996 Declaration Regarding So-Called 'Push Polling'," and the Council of Marketing and Opinion Research's (CMOR) statements on "Political Telemarketing vs. Legitimate Polls and Surveys" and "Defining Political Telemarketing" of February 1999. Each organization has its own variations and additions.
* All three associations specify that legitimate polling firms open each interview by providing the true name of the firm or the telephone research center conducting the interview. AAPOR members have unofficially observed that the candidate or organization sponsoring the survey need not be identified, the position CMOR officially holds in its literature. All three also observe that practitioners of so-called push polling generally provide no name, or in some cases make up a name.
* The AAPC and AAPOR both observe that in a true opinion survey, research firms interview only a small random sample of the population to be studied, typically ranging from up to 1,000 interviews for a major statewide study to as few as 300 in a congressional district. With so-called push polls, the objective is to reach a high percentage of voters, usually at the close of the election. CMOR has defined AAPC's "high percentage of voters" as more than 1,000.
* The AAPC and CMOR state that interviews conducted by real polling firms generally range in length from at least five minutes for even the shortest of tracking questionnaires to more than 30 minutes for a major benchmark study. So-called push poll interviews are typically designed to last 30 to 60 seconds by AAPC's definition and 20 to 30 seconds by CMOR's.
* AAPOR says that "push polls" are usually political telemarketing presented as if conducting a legitimate public opinion poll. CMOR says that push polls are usually conducted by campaign workers or telemarketers, rather than by research interviewers. AAPOR further delineates push polls from research by observing that data is rarely or never saved or analyzed. Legitimate surveys always store and analyze collected data.
Leading pollsters of both parties and all professional organizations with political pollster membership have condemned the practice of push polling, distinguishing it from opinion research. In the words of Republican pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group, "When political researchers put a survey into the field, they do so using recognized scientific techniques to find out what the public is thinking or feeling. 'Push polls' on the other hand, are meant to inform the electorate with no accountability."
The practice of push polling violates the code of ethics to which members of AAPC, CMOR and AAPOR agree upon joining. The NCPP has issued a statement to the effect that it does not recognize "push polls" as legitimate research.
Indiscriminate Confusion
Journalists, university professors, employees of research firms, staff of local and statewide candidates and even U.S. representatives and senators have made statements about push polling that reflect a lack of understanding of them. The confusion usually comes from the proper use by campaigns and pollsters of survey questions designed to test negative campaign messages. This practice has been called "push questioning" by Christopher Arterton, dean of George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management, and "negative polling" by Bruce Blakeman, former vice president of The Wirthlin Group's political research division.
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