Commentary: Envisioning the university of the future: Critical

Public higher education is becoming increasingly privatized and many institutions may be forced into bankruptcy.

Universities and colleges in the United States are facing a tuition crisis, requiring them to raise tuitions rapidly and cut down on costs wherever they can.

Over the last 10 years, average four-year tuitions have increased by 53 percent, and by 14 percent in the last year alone. Conditions are not likely to improve for the following reasons:

U.S. deficits are already massive and, as the baby boomers retire, there will be an intense budgetary squeeze as tax revenues decline and health care costs climb. Some universities may not survive. Those that are able to continue will need to cut costs to the bone while maintaining high quality. Raising taxes or rescinding the federal tax cuts could solve the problem, but that is unlikely to be politically feasible.

Tuition hikes mainly affect the poor. Current college costs for low-income families average 71 percent of their income; for middle- income families, 19 percent. Illogically, higher education is getting less public support when more is urgently needed.

Unfortunately for the U.S. economy, after the retirements start, the children of low-income families will dominate the labor force. The younger population is increasingly African-American or Hispanic; traditionally a much lower percentage of these groups have attended college.

Yet the fastest growing occupations are high tech, almost all require at least a college education, and one of the biggest challenges will be to enroll and educate enough of these non- traditional students so they will have the skills to handle these positions and perform them with high quality.

In my opinion and that of many economists, this ferocious anti- tax attitude and constant cry of Just cut spending! is short-sighted in the extreme. Cutting expenses typically means that jobs are lost. In the long run, it will harm both the rich and the poor if education is not supported.

Money circulates. Tax rates will mean little if corporations have no earnings due to unemployed and low-paid customers having nothing to spend. This will be a vicious cycle; as more companies go bankrupt due to a lack of customers, unemployment rates will rise, the deficits will increase rapidly and we'll be into another Great Depression.

In 1994, the high-level Kerrey-Danforth Commission projected that by the year 2030, all federal revenues would only be sufficient to cover Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and federal pensions - nothing for education, national defense, child health, highway maintenance or any other purpose. A bleak prospect indeed!

That report was long before the massive federal deficits that face us today. 2030 is 26 years away, but as we get closer to that year, it will be increasingly difficult to force tax rates back up.

For higher education, the only solution may be for the institutions to standardize curricula and join together with mergers and strategic partnerships.

The Web may make it possible for many schools to form virtual universities and operate as one institution, sharing resources, students and costs. If this does not happen soon, optimism about our country's future is unwarranted.

Bruce Rollier is an associate professor of management information systems at the University of Baltimore. Previously, he had a 23-year career at IBM.

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