Hollywood Prepares a Big-budget Summer

Bob Strauss

Bob Strauss

Los Angeles Daily News

LOS ANGELES _ The stakes are higher than ever in this year's summer movie game. After making a record $2.2 billion last summer, Hollywood is spending even more money than usual in the hopes of winning large.

Six of this summer's biggest pictures _ paced by the most expensive movie ever, the reportedly $175 million "Waterworld" _ are estimated to have cost more than $70 million apiece. And that's not counting the huge advertising budgets of $20 million to $25 million films such as "Batman Forever," "Judge Dredd," "Die Hard With a Vengeance," "First Knight" and "Braveheart" require just to find the audiences they need to break even.

Another seven summer films are estimated to have cost between $50 million and $70 million, and there's a bunch more in the $40 million to $50 million range _ which, only a few years ago, was considered high-end territory for a summer blockbuster.

There are several reasons for this massive outlay. Summer, of course, is the movie business' biggest season; a good 40 percent of any year's tickets are sold between mid-May and the Labor Day holiday. Coming off of the slowest (although consistently improving) winter session in five years, there's anxiety to get some moneymakers into the marketplace at any cost.

Studios are also operating on the expanding summer audience theory. Which is understandable, since last time around two pictures that ultimately grossed more than $300 million each _ "Forrest Gump" and "The Lion King" _ led the pack to last year's record.

Depending on who you talk to, summer '95 is either poised to beat that record or shouldn't even attempt to. Regardless of their perspectives on that, most industry types agree that it's going to be a very, very successful season.

"Absolutely, I think we'll beat 1994," said Christopher Borde, motion picture analyst for the industry research firm Paul Kagan and Associates. "We definitely have the movies to support that kind of business. More than anything, you're throwing such large amounts of quality products in people's faces that they just can't resist.

"There are some shoo-ins," Borde added. "You know `Batman Forever,' `Pocahontas' and `Die Hard' are going to do so much business. But I really want to see `Apollo 13,' `Braveheart,' `Crimson Tide,' `Judge Dredd' and a lot of other titles as well."

"It's going to be a good summer but not a record summer," countered John Krier, president of the box-office analysis outfit Exhibitor Relations. "That's due to the fact that two films last year made the top four box-office rank of all time. No picture on the horizon (for this summer) would seem to equal `Forrest Gump' and `The Lion King.'

"Then again, we may get some surprises," Krier added. "After all, last year at this time you would have picked `Lion King' as a major hit, but you wouldn't have picked `Forrest Gump.' There are a lot of good pictures out there. Who knows?"

Sight-unseen handicappers around Hollywood have predicted "Batman Forever" as the likeliest big hit, what with its combination of a new director-star team ("The Client's" Joel Schumacher and "Tombstone's" Val Kilmer), the sofar-unbeatable Jim Carrey sharing villain duties with Tommy Lee Jones, and the increasingly hot Chris O'Donnell ("Circle of Friends") introducing Bat-sidekick Robin to the movie franchise.

"It's definitely a lighter Batman," said Rob Friedman, president of worldwide theatrical advertising and publicity for Warner Bros., whish got some flak from viewers and promotion partners for the dark nature of the previous, Tim Burton-directed Bat-sequel. "Our main agenda in the marketing of this movie is to illustrate that the movie is lighter and brighter."

Warner is actually the first studio to count heavily on sequels in several summers _ its also got "Under Siege" and "Free Willy" follow-ups on the schedule _ although it's balancing them with such potentially powerful, all-new fare as the romantic "Bridges of Madison County," starring Meryl Streep and Clint Eastwood, and ultramodel Cindy Crawford's action-packed movie debut, "Fair Game."

Other studios have their own events in place. Disney is arguably taking the largest franchise risk with "Pocahontas"; its first animated musical based on a true story and reportedly sporting a less-than-happy ending. And even though Disney animated spectaculars have been topping each other at the box office since "The Little Mermaid," no reasonable person expects anything to beat "The Lion King."

Then again, "To try to predict what these movies are going to do would not be doing them a service," explained Richard Cook, president of Disney's distribution arm, Buena Vista Pictures. "From `Little Mermaid' on, we've never dreamed that their popularity could be so great. `Pocahontas' is in that ballpark. We could not be more proud and happy with it. How well it will do in regard to the other animated features... I'm sure the public will let us know."

In another break with tradition, Disney will also be releasing two other big-ticket items: the submarine thriller "Crimson Tide" and the Sylvester Stallone superhero adventure "Judge Dredd." In preceding years, the studio followed a lower-budgeted, greater-quantity strategy that produced mixed results.

Of course, as Cook noted, "The public goes to movies they want to see, not just ones that cost a lot." 20th Century Fox learned that lesson last summer when the expensive hit "True Lies" made marginally more than it cost, the costly "Baby's Day Out" bombed and one of the studio's most reasonable productions, "Speed," became a huge hit.

This year, Fox is one of the few studios keeping costs relatively in line, counting on such midrange product as the Hugh Grant romantic comedy "Nine Months" and "Mighty Morphin Power Rangers: The Movie." Even the studio's one really expensive item, the "Die Hard" sequel, was produced by Disney-based Cinergi Productions, making it one of several summer offerings, such as "Braveheart" and "The Indian in the Cupboard," that two studios have split costs on.

"What you look for is not to have peaks and valleys, but to try to be in there in the middle and hope you hit on something that carries you through," observed Fox Executive Vice resident Tom Sherak.

Which brings us back to the summer's biggest gamble of all. "Waterworld," scheduled for release on July 28, opens well after the rest of the season's blockbusters, giving it a clear field in the lucrative action market. However, the Kevin Costner sci-fi epic, set in a flooded future and swamped with production problems and resulting bad press, will need to do "Forrest Gump"-level business just to break even.

And, as noted earlier, that only happens in the very best of summers.

Still, if you're going to sink a big wad in a movie, summer is when you want to make the most of it.

"This is the time of year when you're going to make your $50 million back," analyst Borde said. "On your opening weekend, a successful film sees a large chunk of that money back. At other times of the year, this is less likely."

Following is a list of everything that hopes to win big this summer. As always, some will, some won't _ and some will change their release dates or drop out of the game altogether. "Absolutely, I think we'll beat 1994," said Christopher Borde, motion picture analyst for the industry research firm Paul Kagan and Associates. "We definitely have the movies to support that kind of business. More than anything, you're throwing such large amounts of quality products in people's faces that they just can't resist."

Copyright 1995
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