Easy Tiger hat-trick unless 'Car-nasty' bares its teeth

Last week, in that wonderfully poetic and erudite way of his, Padraig Harrington set about putting this year's Open venue into context. "You love St Andrews, you like Lytham, you respect Carnoustie," said the Joycean Dubliner. "Anyone after a good time will be in the wrong town. 'Nice', 'fun', 'enjoyable' - those words just don't go with Carnoustie. 'Tough', 'honest', 'challenging' - now they do."

Golfers do not come any tougher, more honest or, in certain regards, any more challenging than Harrington, and the 35-year-old must be as good a bet as any to lift his first Claret Jug on Sunday evening and yes (yawn), become the first European to win a major since Paul Lawrie did so the last time The Open was at the Angus links eight barren years ago.

In truth, though, the week will likely not be centred around that ever-growing, and increasingly tiresome, statistic. Only on looking down the list of those who have won three Open Championships in succession can one approximate the scale of the task confronting Tiger Woods this week. Jack Nicklaus never managed it, nor Bobby Jones, Walter Hagen or Tom Watson. Even Old Tom Morris did not "three-peat", as the Americans have learned to call it, and that particular golfing forefather went through Jugs quicker than John Daly.

In fact, since Young Tom Morris first turned the old man flush with a mixture of parental pride and insane envy in 1870, only three more have achieved the "proper" hat-trick. The last was Peter Thomson, 51 years ago, and even he was not sure whether it would be possible again, in this modern age of deeper fields and stronger competition. Before last year's Championship at Hoylake, the Australian was asked whether he believed Woods would be up to it. "I doubt if he'll win three in a row," said Thomson. "But if he sticks at it long enough he's bound to match my total of five."

Woods promptly went out and, like he does, won by a barely extended two shots, becoming the first player to win back-to-back Opens in two-and-a-half decades, at the same time taking his Open tally to three and forcing Thomson to backtrack with the shake of a head and a chuckle. "Yes, I may have to amend my prediction," Thomson told The Independent on Sunday. "You know, the thing about Tiger is that if he never wins another tournament, his reputation is made. But he's after higher, more glorious heights than anyone's ever dreamt of."

Thomson thinks rightly. Saying that, reasons why Woods will not triumph at Carnoustie will still be laid end to end this week, from the very silly to the slightly more believable. Chief among the former will be the distracting effect of the recent birth of his daughter. It is cringe-making to think of the nature and quantity of the questions that will doubtless come Tiger's way at his by-now traditional Tuesday press conference.

(Note to world: Woods did not carry the baby himself, so will not be playing with stitches this week. Another note to world: reproduction has been happening quite a while now.)

Far better to focus on an obstacle that genuinely does stand in the way of yet more history. Woods has been seething about his 1999 experience ever since, and has been unremitting in his criticism right up until last week, when he urged the R&A to "learn the lessons of that setup". There is little danger that the governing body have not. Even if this wet summer has thickened rough that was meant to be wispy, the fairways will be sticking, rendering the examination that much easier. But mark the "er" in that sentence. Carnoustie will never be easy, and Woods knows it. "This is the hardest Open layout no matter what they do to it," he said. "It's one hell of a test."

Woods is not at his peerless best in hell, at least not in Open hell. His three Open victories have come at the three Opens that yielded the lowest average scores in the past decade, and while he has had three top-10s in the three Opens with the highest winning total (including a tie for seventh at Carnoustie) it has become an argument tricky to counter that the harder the challenge, the harder Woods now finds it to impose himself.

That is the meatiest straw on which his rivals can grasp. But if they can find anything to cling on to in a record reading 1-1-2-2 in the past four majors, they must have some reach and an even lengthier imagination.

Naturally, his biggest threats will maintain that they do not worry about Tiger, as that is the route to certain defeat. Despite his skinny Open CV, Phil Mickelson remains the man most likely should Tiger fail, especially as he has seemingly recovered from a wrist injury.

While it would be heartwarming to see Harrington, Justin Rose or Paul Casey right up there, the purists in golf will be praying for a showdown worthy of a mention in the same breath as Federer-Nadal at Wimbledon. The world's two best players surely have to get it on one day, so why not now?

There is a certain logic for believing it will happen. It is 30 years since the "Duel in the Sun", that almost biblical battle between Watson and Nicklaus in the golfing heaven that is Turnberry. What chance a Woods-Mickelson reprise here, what price Carnoustie allowing its infamy to be jeopardised in such a glorious manner? Best keep your pennies in your ball-pocket. This week will be all about respect. Nuff said.

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