Vietnam hero Kerry uses aircraft carrier to launch fight for

THE UNPREDICTABLE race for the Democratic presidential nomination is moving into high gear, with yesterday's formal declaration by Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts and the first official candidates' debate tomorrow in Albuquerque.

Using a US aircraft carrier as his backdrop, and accompanied by crew members of the gunboat he commanded as a lieutenant in Vietnam, Mr Kerry launched a blistering attack on the Republican incumbent, declaring: "George Bush's vision does not live up to the America I enlisted in the navy to defend."

Mr Kerry has been campaigning for months and the venue and the setting of the launch were carefully chosen: South Carolina because it hosts an important early primary; and the Second World War carrier USS Yorktown, berthed outside Charleston, because it highlights the military pedigree which Mr Kerry - decorated for bravery in Vietnam - is banking on to neutralise Mr Bush's strong suit of national security.

But the Massachusetts senator was also playing catch-up. The summer has belonged to belonged to Howard Dean, the blunt-spoken former governor of Vermont, whose long opposition to the war in Iraq and the scathing attacks on President Bush have transformed him from quixotic also-ran into the clear front-runner.

Most candidates struggle to hold the attention of a few curious bystanders, but Mr Dean has been drawing crowds of hundreds, then thousands at speeches across the country, riding Democratic activists' almost visceral dislike of the President. Making unprecedented use of the internet to seek donations, Mr Dean expects to raise more than $10m (pounds 6.4m) in the third quarter, a feat unmatched since Bill Clinton in 1995, when Mr Clinton had the full apparatus of the presidency at his disposal.

Mr Dean has swept ahead of Mr Kerry, the early favourite for the nomination; sucked up the lion's share of press coverage; and taken a head start in media advertising in crucial primary states. Other fancied contenders, such as the former House Democratic leader Richard Gephardt, the 2000 vice-presidential nominee Joe Lieberman and the youthful North Carolina senator John Edwards, are almost ignored.

But everything is still to play for. It is sobering to realise that although the nine declared candidates have been running for six months or more, a CBS poll last week showed two thirds of voters cannot name one of them.

Tomorrow's debate kicks off a series of six by candidates before the 12 January Iowa caucuses which start a highly compressed primary season. The winning nominee will almost certainly be known by the beginning of March, and possibly much sooner.

Anything could happen. No one knows how events in Iraq will affect the campaign. An improvement on the ground could help the candidacies of Mr Gephardt and Mr Lieberman, strong supporters of the war, and remove Mr Dean's most powerful argument.

As front-runner, Mr Dean will face more critical questioning and scrutiny than he has so far. A gaffe in a debate could derail any of the leading candidates' campaign. Others, hampered by poor poll showings and fund-raising difficulties, could fold their campaigns before the first votes are cast.

Mr Dean is followed, in approximate order, by Messrs Kerry, Gephardt, Lieberman and Edwards. The other four candidates - Senator Bob Graham of Florida, the former Illinois senator Carol Mosele- Braun, the Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich, and the Rev Al Sharpton, the civil rights activist - are given no chance of winning.

The crowded field will grow larger this month if, as many expect, retired General Wesley Clark, Nato supreme commander in the 1999 Kosovo war, joins the race. General Clark may not be another Dwight Eisenhower, but his background could make him a serious contender in a year when national security is such an important issue, underscored by the military trappings of Mr Kerry's appearance yesterday.

As President Bush's popularity slides amid doubts over his handling of the economy and Iraq, the nomination is a valuable prize.

Once Mr Bush seemed invincible. Now his approval ratings are in the mid- 50s. One poll found that a majority of likely voters would prefer someone else.

And if Democratic dreamers have their way, that would be Hillary Clinton. The former first lady, now a New York senator, has repeated that she would not run. But polls show her the first choice by far of Democrat voters. And, with the exception of her husband, she is the party's most potent fund- raiser. One Democratic consultant noted wryly: "Never totally believe a politician's denial."

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