Print Action: Printing Forecast 2005

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Printing Forecast 2005

TrendWatch Graphic Arts released its annual forecast report for the commercial printing marketplace, which finds that a high level of optimism is leading printers to big iron investment and away from value-added services. The report, by surveying predominately American commercial printers but also a few Canadian firms, found that 90 per cent of respondents expect the year 2005 to be as good as or better than 2004.

This optimism translates, according to the report's researchers, to increased sales of printing presses. The report cited planned investment in 6-colour sheetfed offset presses to jump six per cent over the next 12 months, having increased from three per cent of respondents last year to nine per cent this year. Direct-to-press offerings are expected to rise to four per cent (from a two per cent level marked last year). Demand for heat-set presses is also expected to rise from one to three per cent.

One of the report's researchers solidifies this position by saying, "As business has improved, printers have been increasingly realizing 'adding printing capabilities' as a sales opportunity-both in terms of adding additional presses to handle more work and in printing capabilities they don't already possess." The report continues to find that planned investment in smaller items is down almost universally as printers investigate the notion of buying big-ticket items. Swept up by a perceived amount of increased work, these printers are turning away from value-added services that they have been pursuing during the downtimes. "This may be a mistake; there is an increasing emphasis from all corners of the culture on non-print media, which will have profound long-term consequences for the printing industry," concludes the researcher.

The report points out that quick printers have become one of the healthiest of the printing markets because this sector, by its very nature, needed to embrace value-added services, as well as new technologies such as digital printing, colour copying and non-print services like those dealing with cross-media. According to the report, the healthy impact that quick printers felt from adding value-added services holds even more credence if you consider their competition was not just coming from other quick printers. Companies like Staples, The UPS Store, FedEx Kinko's and other retail stores suddenly showed up in this market when they never would have been considered print providers in the past.

Other findings from the report, fully entitled Printing Forecast 2005: The TrendWatch Graphic Arts Perspective on the Challenges and Opportunities for Printing Firms in the Next 12 Months and Beyond, include:

* 32 per cent expect of respondents expect business in the next 12 months to be "excellent, better than the previous 12 months" (down from 37 per cent six months earlier), yet 58 per cent expect business to be "OK" or as good as business has been over the past 12 months (up from 51 per cent);

* The number two business challenge for print and prepress firms is "competition," (68 per cent) up from 53 per cent six months ago and at the highest level this challenge has ever tracked in the history of the TrendWatch survey;

* Quick printers are most likely to value "making website more interactive" as an opportunity (37 per cent, up from 26 per cent). They are also more likely to consider "broadening digital colour variable printing jobs" as an opportunity (34 per cent, up from 22 per cent);

* "Understanding where our business should go in the future" is the number two challenge for creative firms and at 66 per cent is the highest this challenge has ever charted;

* 20 per cent of all print and prepress firms consider "building a networked, digital infrastructure" as a business challenge-and this challenge is on a definite upward swing;

* About 13 per cent of all print and prepress firms have worked on targeted print jobs that incorporate "variable-image, variable-text" information. Interestingly, printers say they work on the archetypal "variable-data printing" job much less often than do design and production firms;

* Two of the critical concerns for publishers are "paper prices" (at 69 per cent, the highest this challenge has ever charted) and "printing costs" (at 63 per cent, also the highest point for this challenge). These challenges are driving a lot of interest in non-print media on the part of publishers.