Evans & Novak

Presidential 2000-Repubican: Texas Gov. George W. Bush with his triple victory February 29-Virginia, North Dakota and Washington-moved back into the commanding position for the nomination against Sen. John McCain (Ariz.).

1) The Virginia primary constituted a golden opportunity-perhaps the last opportunity-for McCain to become a genuine frontrunner. There is no question that the Bush organization was deeply worried. Gov. James Gilmore was careful to avoid the flat assurances of victory that embarrassed Gov. John Engler in Michigan. Had McCain won in Virginia, Bush would have been in serious trouble for the nomination.

2) As usual, Bush won the Republicans and McCain won the independents and Democrats. But whereas the non-- Republicans comprised 51% of the vote in Michigan, they were only 35% in Virginia. The requirement to sign a pledge abstaining from Democratic activity suppressed the Democratic turnout to 8%.

3) The overwhelming 3-to-1 vote for Bush among Virginia Republicans reflected a majority opinion that McCain had attacked Bush unfairly and Bush had not attacked McCain unfairly. In addition to a 6-to-l Bush vote among self-identified religious conservatives, there is evidence that McCain's attack on Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell backfired in Virginia.

4) The basic reason for McCain's assault was his lingering feeling that he had been badly treated by the religious right in the South Carolina primary. But there also was a strategic purpose-that is, to try to give McCain a boost in California, New York and Ohio on Super Tuesday.

5) McCain missed the opportunity afforded by his Michigan victory to present his conservative side to hardcore Republicans. Instead, his post-Michigan attacks on Robertson and Falwell appealed to the independents and Democrats who make up his core constituency.

6) Bush's victory in Washington State, where McCain had been given a good chance, suggested his tough campaign tactics in general had backfired.

7) McCain now is pressing home the argument that only he, not Bush, can be elected. That is an argument that by itself is seldom effective in intraparty politics and doesn't figure to be so this time.

8) Prior to Tuesday's triple victory, Bush had a difficult week-so fearful of erosion of the Catholic vote that he backtracked by apologizing for his visit to Bob Jones University. But McCain's assault on the religious right obscured Bush's discomfiture.

9) Bush is at once weaker and stronger than he was before the challenge from McCain. He lacks the sense of inevitability and electability that he previously enjoyed, and his famous war chest is badly depleted. But he is much more a hero of the conservative mainstream, having survived this challenge, and is a better candidate than he was before.

Presidential 2000--Democratic: The strange campaign of former Sen. Bill Bradley is running on fumes against Vice President Al Gore.

1) Bradley never was able to capitalize on his near-miss in New Hampshire February 1, with McCain preempting his potential support. Bradley might have been able to win New Hampshire except for McCain, and McCain suffocated his candidacy thereafter.

2) Bradley's last gasp was the onesided defeat he suffered in Washington State February 29 after committing all his resources there in a pathetic effort to revive his candidacy.

3) That leaves Gore in the position he hoped to be in a year earlier: assured of the nomination and ready to battle the Republicans. He is most certainly a different candidate from what he was a year ago and probably tougher, too. How deftly he can appear to move to the middle and how attractive he will be remains to be seen.

GOP Congress on Managed Care:

The debate over whether patients should be allowed to sue their health plans for medical abuses resumed in a House-Senate conference committee. a couple of weeks ago. The details of a compromise measure are sketchy, while the question of liability looms heavily over the conferees.

The conference committee is stacked with members who voted against the Dingell-Norwood managed-care bill, which passed by a wide margin in the House. Dingell-Norwood provides patients with an unlimited right to sue. Sen. Don Nickles (R.-Okla.), the committee's chairman, is steadfastly opposed to such a right, and will make it very difficult to reach a liability compromise.

The special report appears exclusively in HUMAN EVENTS. For subscription information on their Evans-Novak Political Repor call 800-789-5367.

Copyright Human Events Publishing, Inc. Mar 10, 2000
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