Capital briefs

* POST-DOLE: The chief beneficiary among Republican voters of Elizabeth Dole's sudden exit from the Republican presidential race appears to be Texas Gov. George W. Bush--not Arizona Sen. John McCain, as originally predicted by the pundits. According to the most recent Fox News poll, Bush is now the presidential favorite of 63% of GOP voters nationwide, followed by McCain and Steve Forbes at 80% each, and Gary Bauer with 5%.

But in New Hampshire, the Dole withdrawal has had a different effect. Much of Dole's campaign team for the first-inthe-nation primary has now moved to the McCain camp. Among the Dolemen now supporting McCain-whose state effort is headed by liberal former GOP Sen. Warren Rudman-are Tyco International President Dennis Kozlowski (the Dole finance chairman in the Granite State), and former State Rep. Brenda Keith (Dole's campaign chairman in Derry). McCain, who began running 60-second TV spots in New Hampshire last week, was also endorsed by liberal former Gov. Walter Peterson (R.).

* STRATEGY PAYING OFF: The Arizona senator is ignoring the Iowa caucuses and his "New Hampshire First" strategy appears to be paying off. Last week, a statewide survey of likely GOP primary voters conducted by veteran New Hampshire pollster Dick Bennett showed George W. Bush leading McCain by a margin of 42% to 260/c,-the closest McCain has ever come to being the frontrunner-with the remaining Republican candidates all in single digits.

* AFTER CHAFEE: Within days of the death of Sen. John Chafee (R.-R.I.) last week (see "Politics '99:' page 20), speculation was rampant over just who would succeed him as chairman of the powerful Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. Although John Warner (R.-Va.) is next in seniority on the committee, it is almost certain he will choose to remain chairman of the Armed Services Committee. Next would have come Sen. Bob Smith (N.H.), but he bolted the GOP to become an Independent earlier this year and is thus technically out of his party and its seniority ranking on committees. That leaves Smith's dose friend and fellow conservative stalwart Jim Inhofe (R.-Okla.) in line to succeed liberal and environmentalist hero Chafee as chairman.

But the story on Capitol Hill last week was that Smith was reconsidering his break with the GOP and seriously eyeing a return to his former party, which then might theoretically put him ahead of Inhofe for the chairmanship. Noting that any prospective chairman has to be voted on by the Republican members of the full committee and by the entire GOP caucus, most Hill sources who spoke to Humm EvENTs agreed that GOP senators were unlikely to reward an insurgent Smith with such a key chairmanship so soon after he rejoins their party.

* SMITH'S OUT OF RACE: Perhaps in anticipation of going back to the GOP fold, independent Smith on October 28 officially dropped out of the presidential race. "it has become impossible for me to continue a credible run for the presidency without the necessary finances, as many who have already ended their presidential bids have also experienced:' Smith said. Nonetheless, Smith said he was "pleased to report that ... my campaign [will] finish in the black."

* NEWT'S BACK: After keeping a rather low profile for some time after being forced out as House speaker-other than news stories about his messy ongoing divorce from his second wife in the wake of the revelation of his adulterous affair-Newt Gingrich is back. A spokesman for the Georgian announced October 28 that Gingrich has signed a deal with Fox News cable channel to be a political commentator.-*Terms of the deal were not announced, but its thought to be for three years and approximately $1 million. "I am thrilled to have this opportunity to present my views. I look forward to that challenge. It should be great fun:' Gingrich said in a statement. Gingrich also has a syndicated talk show on Premiere Radio Networks.

* TAX BREAK FOR THE RICH: Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D.R.I.), a member of that clan of rich folk that always has the little people in its hearts, wants a tax break for purchasers of yachts. His Boat Building Investment Act would give a 20% tax credit to buyers of yachts 50 feet or more in length-boats beyond the means of even welfare queens. The credit would top out at $2 million, so only the first $10 million a buyer pays for a yacht would be eligible.

Columnist George F Will said last week that Kennedy-who recognizes that the 1990 luxury tax, repealed in 1993, devastated America's yacht industry, which conservatives had predicted-now wants to subsidize ft. Why? Because he argues that his bill "would benefit the nearly 6,000 Rhode Islanders working in the state's more than $1-billion-a-year boat-building industry, and workers elsewhere. " "You see:' said Will,"the subsidy to the wealthy would, to coin a phrase, tr/cMe down."

* CLINTON FOR NIXON PARDON: There were many raised eyebrows last week among the overflow crowd at the U.S. Capitol ceremony honoring former President and Mrs. Gerald Ford when Bill Clinton gave his speech. In no uncertain terms, the current Democratic President distanced himself from what most in his own party have long attacked Ford for and what many historians conclude was pivotal in Ford's narrow defeat in 1976: the pardon of Richard Nixon. "It was easy for us to criticize you because we were caught up in the moment:' said Clinton. "You didn't get caught up in the moment and you were right. You were right for the controversial decisions you made to keep the country together."