Evans & Novak

Reform Party: In the two-way battle for the nomination, there is no question that Pat Buchanan has a clear advantage over Donald Trump.

1) While Buchanan is off and running, it is still not clear how serious Trump is. On "Meet the Press" recently, Trump set a March cutoff date for deciding whether to run---a very late date indeed in the context of current politics. New York City insiders who know Trump well say he is just conning the gullible inside-theBeltway rubes. They say Trump will have trouble raising money and is not liquid enough to finance a presidential campaign out of his personal fortune.

2) It would take Trump at least $8 million to embark on the 20-plus state ballot access required by the Reform Party, because he would have to rely on paid petition circulators. Buchanan, in contrast, might get by with $2 million-- which he presumably can raise-because of using volunteers. Some four weeks ago, Buchanan hired Matt Sawyer, the ace Dallas-based expert on ballot access who handled this task for Ross Perot in '92 and '96.

3) Perot and his political lieutenant, Russ Verney (outgoing national chairman of the Reform Party), are officially neutral, but there is little doubt that they vastly prefer. Buchanan to Thump. Their close My, 1996 Reform vice-presidential candidate Pat Choate, is openly for Buchanan.

4) Thrump's answer to Perot-Verney-- Choate is the Reform Party's only major elected office-holder: Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura. But Ventura's impact outside Minnesota has been diminished by his infamous Playboy interview.

5) Which candidate is closer to the thrust of the Reform Party? That's hard to say, because the Reform Party is so amorphous. The '92 Perot thrust of deficit reduction is an anachronism. Buchanan's social conservatism (especially on abortion) seems to collide with Reform libertarian sentiment and is not in line with the Ventura-style "centrist" agenda with heavy emphasis on "reform." But the Perot-- Verney-Choate line emphasizes opposition to globalism and free trade, and Buchanan is surely there.

6) A Republic Not an Empire is Buchanan's first best-selling book, but his treatment of World War 11-as interpreted and widely misinterpreted-has opened the way for vicious attacks on him. Trump calls him a "Hitler-lover," Sen. John McCain (R. -Ariz.) reads him out of the Republican Party and McCain's supporters deride George W. Bush for not doing the same to Buchanan. This is clearly the lever to keep Buchanan from biting too deeply into the Republican vote.

7) Buchanan's announcement speech, of course, did not mention the World War H controversy but did not plough new ground. Buchanan will have to broaden his message in order to attract wider electoral support.

Bush v. Gore: In a hypothetical matchUP between GOP frontrunner George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore, Bush wins by a landslide. With 478 electoral college votes to Gore's 60, Bush demonstrates how dominant his campaign is right now in all regions of the country. However, the race for the presidency is in its early stages.

1) Though the Gore campaign received a jolt when it relocated to the Vice President's home state of Tennessee, it still lacks the momentum it needs to start undercutting Bush's advantage.

2) Gore can cut into Bush's lead by reenergizing his support among black voters in the South.

3) Bush's edge in California is tight, and Gore has plenty of time to rally support among key Democratic constituencies in the state.

4) The Midwest is now a Bush stronghold, and if he can keep it, it gives him a decisive advantage over Gore.

5) The Northeast is a different story, as Bush holds a tenuous lead over Gore in several key states. - If Gore can make inroads to liberals in the region, he easily tip the balance in his favor.

Bush v. Bradley: Democratic Presidential contender Bill Bradley appears stronger than Gore in a head-to-head match-up with Bush. If the election were held today, Bradley-who gets 112 electoral votes to Bush's 426-is strongest in the Northeast.

1) If Bradley wants to be competitive with Bush, he has to tap into the South and Midwest. Staying competitive in the Midwest means Bradley will have to appeal to big labor, which is now mostly behind Gore.

2) Gore is clearly the favorite among blacks in the South, so if Bradley gets the nomination, he would need to bring them on board.

3) If Bradley gets the nomination, he can draw on an impressive campaign war chest. He has thus far proven himself a skillful fundraiser, which will undoubtedly help him in a general election campaign against Bush.

Copyright Human Events Publishing, Inc. Nov 12, 1999
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