Simon could be comeback kid

San Francisco, Calif. (July 19)-California Republican gubernatorial candidate William E. Simon, Jr. delivered the line deadpan: "I have always said that Gray Davis is America's only coin-operated governor."

Simon's quip about his Democratic opponent-which came only days after reports that Davis, at $50 million and counting, had accumulated the largest re-election kitty ever raised by an American governor-- brought down the house during a luncheon speech before the Republican National Committee (RNC) at the Fairmont Hotel.

A standing ovation followed Simon's address. Afterward, RNC members swarmed around him to ask for his autograph. take snapshots, and compliment the easy, affable speaking style he has developed.

Despite some criticism of the way his campaign is being run, Republicans both in California and across the nation sense that the 50-year-old Simon has a real chance to repeat in the fall election the sort of comefrom-behind victory he scored over former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan in this spring's Republican primary.

There was much buzzing at the RNC conclave about a just-completed Public Opinion Strategies poll conducted by the Simon campaign that showed the Republican nominee leading Davis 39% to 31%. Although skeptics could try to dismiss this survey as a self-serving product of the Simon camp, it tracked with a report in the San Francisco Chronicle that a poll conducted for California State Assembly Democrats showed Simon leading Davis by 9 percentage points.

And while the venerable Field Poll (which California Republicans have-long insisted is skewed toward Democrats) gave Davis a 41% to 34% lead over Simon, the margin was the tightest the survey has shown so far in the race. At one point, Davis was 15 points ahead.

More ominously for Davis, Field showed that 51 % of the voters have a negative view of the governor, compared to only 37% who give him good marks for his performance. "The percentage of voters choosing Davis over Simon has been edging down [and Davis's] numbers are not looking good," Field Poll director Mark Di Camillo told the Chronicle. "That has to be worrisome."

But what is perhaps most interesting about the latest polling numbers is that Simon should be in such a strong political position despite weak fund-raising and continuing turmoil in his campaign organization. In addition, Simon's strong poll numbers came after he had been pummeled for a month by negative television ads that the Davis campaign reportedly spent $4 million to air.

The attack ads focus on Simon's service on the board of a failed savings and loan and his initial refusal to release his personal income tax returns.

"I wouldn't be surprised if Gray Davis doesn't run a positive commercial for the rest of the campaign," Simon told me shortly after his luncheon speech. "That's what you do when you have a failed track record. And it's also a sign that our message of lower taxes and a livable and affordable life is resonating with Californians."

Simon said he believes that given the state's record high $24-billion deficit, its power crisis, and the widespread media reports of Davis's heavy-handed fund-raising tactics, "negative advertising is not going to work. People are tired of the old politics. They want to hear how you are going to improve their lives."

Along those lines, Simon underscored the agenda he has long campaigned on: rolling back the huge bureaucracy that Davis has created in Sacramento, cutting income taxes, and creating "empowerment zones"-lowering capital gains taxes in certain areas to allow small entrepreneurs to expand their businesses and create jobs.

Both Simon and campaign operative John Peschong played down reports that the latest campaign finance statements show the Republican candidate has only $5 million left in his coffers, compared to a whopping $35 million on hand by Davis. "Hey," said Peschong, "we've raised $11.6 million so far and that's more than [1998 GOP nominee Dan] Lungren had raised at this point four years ago and, in fact, more than [Republican then-Gov.] Pete Wilson had raised at this point in 1994."

Peschong said he was confident the next reports would show a strong influx of cash into the Simon campaign. Simon said he believes that Davis's unusually high neg

ative poll ratings are linked to reports that, in Simon's words, "he's the greediest fund-raiser of all-that he spends 12 hours a day asking for money, sometimes even threatening prospective donors, that this is a governor who took $120,000 from Enron."

Regarding reports that his campaign is in disarray and has been through at least three campaign managers and a variety of top staffers since the primary, Simon said that "this is just a cheap shot from people who dislike his campaign consultant Sal Russo. "Sal got us through the primary in the biggest come-from-behind campaign in state history," said Simon.

He said that political operative Ron Lapsley would now oversee the day-to day operations in the campaign while Peschong, who had been acting campaign manager, would continue to advise him while serving in his primary role as a field operative for the Republican National Committee.