Races of the week: Shaw vs. Roberts

Florida's 22nd District

"I don't know if mine was the closest or second-closest House race in the country, but it was too close. When we finally went home election night, I was ahead by 599 votes. The recount took about two weeks and it didn't change it. But I sure don't want to go through that again."

That was Republican Rep. Clay Shaw (R.-Fla.) reminiscing about his 2000 election-the tightest of all 435 House races and his closest brush with defeat since coming to Congress in 1980.

In staving off a loss at the hands of liberal Democratic state legislator Elaine Bloom, Shaw faced an opponent who raised nearly $2.4 million, benefited tremendously from visits by celebrities ranging from Rosie O'Donnell to Bill Clinton, and had more than 1,100 workers on the ground on Election Day. In addition, Hadassah Lieberman, wife of the Democratic vice presidential nominee, was actually in the district in the days just before the balloting, drumming up support in the condominium-- heavy portion of the district.

Her coffers enriched by labor and left-- of-center groups, Bloom pilloried Shaw for wanting to "privatize" the present Social Security system. "Barry Goldwater must be turning over is his grave at how liberals are still trying to distort this issue," fumed James L. Martin of the "60 Plus" Seniors Association.

It nearly worked. The turnout was 95% in parts of the historically Democratic portion of the 22nd, and Bloom topped Shaw by 2 to 1 in the Miami-Dade part of the district. What saved him was a strong showing in Palm Beach County and in his home base of Broward County, where Shaw had served as mayor of Fort Lauderdale before coming to Congress.

"I have to say the opposition had a masterful grass-roots effort," observed the congressman. "But we survived."

The 63-year-old Shaw returned to his work as the third-ranking Republican on the powerful tax-writing Ways and Means Committee, as the House point man on the President's free-market-oriented prescription drug plan and as a leader in the fight to abolish the estate tax for good.

In his re-election fight this year, Shaw appears in better shape. Reapportionment has undoubtedly boosted his chances. Also, while some argued that Shaw (lifetime American Conservative Union rating: 82%)who had not faced a strong Democratic challenge in more than a decade-was caught napping in 2000, the congressman this year signed on hard-nosed, no-nonsense political operative Larry Casey as his campaign manager. Under Casey, the Shaw effort already has 300 eager volunteers throughout the district.

But is Clay Shaw finally home free? Hardly.

Any congressman who survives the closest race in the nation is going to be a target in the next election, redistricting and charged-up campaign notwithstanding.

Sure enough, area Democrats have already closed ranks around Palm Beach County Commissioner Carol Roberts, who achieved widespread recognition in the tumult after the 2000 election--crying "Foul," demanding on television that chads and anything else that might make Al Gore President be counted.

Although Rosie, Bill, and Hadassah haven't been spotted on the campaign trail with Roberts (not yet, anyway), she is in many ways a more formidable opponent than the almost-triumphant Bloom was in 2000.

For starters, she lacks the decidedly leftof-center voting record that Bloom had, because her votes have been cast only on the county commission on matters of local concern. As Shaw put it, "The work of the county commission is sure important, but the matters on which a commission votes are sure different from those in the state legislature or Congress. I assume my opponent takes the liberal Democratic line on most national issues, but those aren't anything like what comes up in county government."

Similarly, because of the matters she has dealt with as a 15-year county commissioner, Roberts is in a position to easily raise big money from local business. As the Palm Beach Post concluded, "She's running for Congress to have a say in national policy and foreign affairs, but Democrat Carol Roberts' first campaign report reads a lot like the agenda from a county zoning meeting. "

By March 31, the Post said, Roberts had raised nearly half of the $201,181 in her campaign kitty from "developers, zoning agents, land use lawyers and others who have had deals with the commission."

For example, the Palm Beach Aggregates quarry near 20-Mile Bend was on the commission agenda seeking more time to complete some median landscaping on Southern Boulevard. One of the quarry's owners, Sam W. Klein, gave $2,000 and his wife gave another $2,000 to Roberts' congressional campaign. Michel Sauers, president of the firm selected to manage the county convention center, contributed $1,000 to Roberts and his wife also gave $1,000.

As Ben Wilcox of Common Cause Florida told the Post, "They're making what they see as a business investment. It's not really a contribution."

Contribution, investment, whatever-- Carol Roberts will have an extremely well-- lubricated race against the incumbent lawmaker who came the closest to being a non-incumbent in 2000. Hence, the strong case for conservatives nationwide to rally to the banner of Clay Shaw in '02.