Evans & Novak

Steel Tariffs: The Bush Administration is coming across new problems stemming from the 30% tariffs it imposed on imported steel in March.

1) Administration officials say they are surprised by the price spikes in steel and manufacturing. They assert these prices are more due to exaggeration and over-reaction than actual market conditions. Steel prices were rising in the first quarter of 2001, before the tariffs were imposed. In January through March of this year, hot-rolled steel prices climbed 10%-- about $20 per ton.

2) After the announcement of the. tariffs, buyers flocked to pick up steel before the levies went into effect, and prices approached $275 a ton. The decrease in supply caused by the tariffs has brought a ton of steel up to $300, compared to $210 at the end of last year. Administration officials had said in March that they expected increases smaller than have actually appeared.

3) Meanwhile, WTO has agreed to rule on Europe's proposed $888 million in retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. The WTO panel will also examine whether Asian countries have grounds for retaliation. Underlying the European dispute are the political ambitions of EU Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy who wants to be a leader of the left in France.

4) President Bush could defuse some European resentment on steel by granting generous exemptions to certain exporters into the U.S. Steel interests and manufacturers are lobbying heavily in Washington on opposite sides of the debate over exemptions. Over 600 exemptions have been requested already. Still, the steel interests-primarily the labor unions-- have more political influence with Bush than do the opposing industries. Supplemental Appropriations: President Bush's threats against a pork-laden bill are running into complications.

1) The House Republican leaders have insisted on passing the debt-limit as part of the supplemental rather than as a freestanding bill, in order to save Republican members the embarrassment.

2) Senate Democrats have seized the opportunity and suggested that they will drop their insistence on a separate debt-- limit extension if the supplemental includes spending caps that are much higher than the President wants. 3) That suggests the possibility that Bush may be forced to sign a supplemental that he definitely does not want, in order to get the debt limit extension--and keep the Social Security checks rolling. New York Report: The Congressional redistricting plan requested by Vice President Dick Cheney and House Speaker Hastert (R.) leaves out in the cold Rep. Ben Gilman (R.) and Democrat Rep. John LaFalce (D.).

1) LaFalce could have challenged Rep. Louise Slaughter in a primary in the new Buffalo-Rochester district they were both thrown into, but last week decided instead not to seek re-election.

2) For 15-term Rep. Gilman, though, there are other options. He has at least entertained bolting the Republican Party and running as a Democrat against Rep. Sue Kelly (R.). However, he may have ruled this out when Democrats told him that he would not be in line for the chairmanship of the International Relations Committee if he won and Democrats regained the majority. Gilman ran the committee for six years before GOP term-limits made him hand over the gavel. Rep. Tom Lantos (D.-Calif.), in his 11th term, is the top Democrat on the committee.

3) Gilman has hired Republican consultant Arthur Finklestein to test the waters in Kelly's district, as well as in the districts of Reps. Nita Lowey (D.) and Eliot Engel D.). Gilman may also consider a run against Rep. Maurice Hinchey(D.). outcome in New York is that Gilman loses while the other 29 incumbents win re-election, leaving Democrats with an 18-to-11 majority in the state delegation.

5) The re-election of Gov. George Pataki (R.) to a third term long has been considered a virtual certainty, but a few caveats have emerged.

6) The wild card is the independent candidacy of billionaire Thomas Golisano. He claims he will spend $75 million of his own money-five times what he spent in his last run for governor four years ago. Considering what happened in last year's New York City mayoral election, Golisano could at least cripple Pataki.

7) Pataki has drifted considerably to the left over the last eight years, and some disaffected conservatives could be attracted by Golisano. While Golisano is even less of a legitimate conservative than Pataki, he is using the same "too liberal for too long" label on Pataki that Pataki used on in Mario Cuomo in 1994. This special report appears exclusively in HUMAN EVENT. For subscription information on the Evans-- Novak Political Report, call 800-789-5367.

Copyright Human Events Publishing, Inc. Jul 1, 2002
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