Evans & Novak

Presidential Outlook: The roller-coaster contest appears to have stabilized with Vice President Al Gore clearly--but not safely-- ahead of Texas Gov. George W. Bush.

1) The past week was the time when Bush's candidacy might have collapsed (as his father's did eight years ago). It did not. The immense variation in polls shows how many subjective decisions go into this science. But it appears that Gore, in separating himself from President William Clinton, has moved in front by 3 or 4 percentage points.

2) All the polls show that Gore owes his comeback to strong support from women. They have proved far more volatile than men, shifting their support for Bush (which gave him a deceptively large lead after the Philadelphia convention) to Gore. This volatility led to the fairly ludicrous talent contest between the two presidential candidates on the Oprah Winfrey television show.

3) After all the back and forth, the outlook is not too different from the way the presidential race would have been assessed a year ago--the outcome still depends on perhaps nine closely contested states. Eight were more or less expected (Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) and one, Florida, unexpected. Bush also has hopes in Minnesota, Oregon and Washington, while Gore has hopes in Georgia, Louisiana and Colorado. At the most, we are talking about a 15-state contest.

George W. Bush: Since our last report, the Republican candidate has managed to keep dear of the distractions that have plagued his campaign for the previous three weeks.

1) Bush's campaign appearances have continued to be more focused on two key issues: education and tax reduction. His speech (delivered by remote) to the California state GOP convention got high marks.

2) But there is a disconnect between Bush on the stump and his campaign's television advertisements. The Republican National Committee's commercials have been disastrous.

3) Clearly, the Bush campaign has to coordinate the candidate on the stump and what goes on TV. We find GOP politicians, around the country waiting for TV ads that will sound the tax message.

4) The all-Texas team running the show in Austin has brought in a member of the Washington political establishment (albeit a junior member): political operative Ed Gillespie. He certainly won't be running the show, but he is a savvy spokesman and strategist.

5) There is grumbling from inside the Bush camp that three or four critically important weeks were wasted, particularly in the feckless debate on debates.

Al Gore, Jr.: After so many ups and downs, his campaign is at its most stable under the chairmanship of William Daley--and just at the right time.

1) In his new popularity after Los Angeles, Gore once again has gone below the surface: no press conferences, no long television interviews, and very structured exposure.

2) There is also a fixed quality to the Gore theme: prescription drugs, attack the pariah corporations (tobacco, gun makers, and so on) and appeal to the women's vote.

3) Gore still is prone to senseless exaggeration, evidenced by the discredited story that his mother-in-law's drug costs were higher than those prescribed for his dog. But his isolation from free-lance interviews minimizes this danger.

Debate: The acceptance by Bush of the debate commission's schedule may have looked like a complete capitulation, but it was a little less than that.

1) Bush's representatives did get a little more free-lancing in the debate format than Gore wanted. They also won Jim Lehrer as moderator for all the debates, instead of his PBS colleague Gwen Ifill, as desired by Gore.

2) Nevertheless, the Bush debate strategy was a distraction and pretty close to being a fiasco. The basic miscalculation was that the news media would belabor Gore for not agreeing to the Tim Russert and Larry King debates despite having previously accepted them.

3) Now, the pressure is on Bush--not only to show that he is in the same debater's league with Gore but also to actually score a coup if possible. Also, keep your eye out for a late Bush attempt for additional debates--though it will be mighty hard to find time to squeeze them in.

Budget Endgame: With the selfimposed October 6 deadline for finishing all-important spending bills fast approaching, it looks increasingly likely that budget negotiations will culminate in a giant omnibus spending bill.

GOP insiders now believe the appropriations cycle will end in the third week of October. And they are resigning themselves to the grim outcome of another catch-all budget package. With only two spending bills (Defense and Military Construction) signed into law, that is a strong possibility.

This special report appears exclusively in HUMAN EVENTS. For subscription information on their Evans-- Novak Political Report call 800-789-5367.

Copyright Human Events Publishing, Inc. Sep 29, 2000
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