Old Dominion, new direction

Lessons and Admonitions for the National Republican Party

Not since the army of Ulysses S. Grant rolled in with cannon fire have Republicans controlled Richmond, Va. Now, thanks to last Tuesday's election returns, a new Reconstruction may begin in Old Dominion poli-- tics. The results already have produced lessons and admonitions for Republicans elsewhere in the nation.

Going into the election, the Republicans controlled all three of Virginia's elected executive branch offices-the governorship, the lieutenant governorship and the attorney generalship. They also controlled the state senate, 21 to 19, while the state house of delegates was split virtually evenly, with 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans and 1 Independent who usually voted with Republicans.

Needing a shift of just one seat in the house to take complete control of Virginia's government for the first time in history, the Republicans picked up three, while retaining their two-seat majority in the senate.

Across the Potomac in Washington the spinning and speculation started immediately Are there any lessons here for conservatives and Republicans to heed in the 2000 elections? Absolutely. But there are also some admonitions. Let's start with the good.

Lessons

Virginia will help Republicans retain US. House majority.

Controlling Virginia's government gives Republicans a big boost in their effort to maintain a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. After the 1990 census, a Democratic governor working with a Democratic legislature gerrymandered Virginia, forcing then-Rep. George Allen (R.) into the same congressional district as House Commerce Chairman Tom Bliley Rather than run against a fellow Republican, Allen retired from Congress (later going on to win the governorship).

Despite the increasingly conservative trend of Virginia voters, the Democrats in this decade have retained a 6-to-5 majority in the state's U.S. congressional delegation. But now the Republicans may do to Rep@ Jim Moran, the liberal Democrat who represents affluent Alexandria, what the Democrats did to Allen.

Rep. Tom Davis, the Virginian who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee, estimates that Republicans could pick up two or three congressional seats in the state if it is properly redistricted- David Israelite, the political director for the Republican National Committee, has predicted that as many as four seats could change hands.

On top of that, Democratic Rep. Virgil Goode, a Clinton impeachment adocate from conservative southwestern Virginia, will find himself under mounting pressure to switch his affiliation. He has already been branded a "traitor" by Democrats in the state.

With California set to be redistricted by liberal Democratic Gov. Gray Davis and a Democratic-controlled state legislature, Virginia will play an important role in balancing out congressional districts that Republicans are bound to lose on the West Coast.

Virginia will help Republicans retain U.S. Senate Majority.

Virginia's Sen. Chuck Robb, up for reelection next year, is considered one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats. His challenger is former Virginia Gov. George Allen-the man the Democrats gerrymandered out of the House in 1992. Allen, the most popular former governor in the recent history of the state (where governors are allowed to serve only one term), is a shrewd and charismatic politician who is already leading Robb in the polls. With enthusiasm now running high among Republican activists and contributors, smart money is picking Allen to ride the momentum into a Senate pickup next year.

Democratic demagoguery on guns and education failed.

The Democrats in Virginia used the same sort of demagogic rhetoric that characterizes today's national Democratic politics. They tried to demonize Republicans as destroyers of schools and purveyors of guns. The essence of their message boiled down to their accusation that Republicans even let children have guns at school.

They did everything but hire a country-- and-western songwriter to pen a campaign dit titled, "Johnny Can't Read Because He Brought His Gun to School." (Perhaps they couldn't find one who didn't own guns.) The beautiful irony of this failed tactic is that it was partly true: In rural southwestern Virginia, high school students are allowed to bring their hunting rifles to school and keep them, unloaded, in their cars.

Virginia voters, living in the state that insisted that the 2nd Amendment be attached to the Constitution as a condition of joining the Union, are unperturbed by the fact that a new generation of Americans is learning to enjoy a fundamental right.

They also may like the crime control agenda the Republicans have already enacted in the state better than the Democrats' gun-control proposals. The Republican agenda includes liberal use of the death penalty and abolition of parole-a landmark piece of legislation enacted under former Gov. Allen.

The tax message still works.

Virginia's current Republican Gov. James Gilmore was elected two years ago on the strength of his pledge to "ax the car tax," a steep levy that Virginia assesses annually on what the state government claims to be the value of privately owned automobiles. In a state increasingly populated by car-- dependent long-distance commuters, this tax is reviled.