Evans & Novak

Presidential 2000-Democratic: As Vice President Al Gore and former Sen. Bill Bradley met in New Hampshire in a debate-like "town meeting" Wednesday night, there was little doubt that this is a real contest for the presidential nomination.

1) The recharged Gore campaign has had its run, and failed to knock out the resurgent Bradley. The conventional wisdom is that Gore's attacks on Bradley, coupled with Bradley's failure to respond in kind, will lengthen the gap for the frontrunner. But all signs are that Bradley gains on Gore wherever the senator campaigns. The reaction by focus groups that are shown videos of the Gore attacks indicates that it backfires against Gore.

2) The fear among Gore supporters is that a Bradley win in the New Hampshire primary followed by a win in New York will boost support for Bradley in subsequent big-state primaries in California and the Midwest. There is a double firewall Gore will rely on to try to prevent a free-fall.

3) The first firewall is the South. Gore has a big edge there, not because he is a native Southerner but because of strength among African-Americans, who now comprise about 40% of the vote in Southern Democratic primaries. Bradley is calling on his old black basketball buddies, but Gore is the clear favorite of the blacks.

4) The second firewall: 799 super-delegates (members of Congress and other notables who don't belong to a state delegation). Gore operatives claim a hammerlock on what amounts to the New York and California delegations combined, and Bradley aides prefer not to contest that judgment. Actually, however, they are very nervous about Gore's leading the attack, and are most responsive to polls showing that Bradley runs better in the general election than Gore.

0 Presidential 2000-Republican: Texas Gov. George W. Bush is still the overwhehming favorite, but has slipped a little in New Hampshire against Sen. John McCain (Ariz.).

1) Have Bush's managers played it too cute in keeping him out of the first two New Hampshire debates, last week and this week? They don't think so, but this is a state where being standoffish is fatal. Bush has moved up his first debate appearance from Iowa in January to New Hampshire in December.

2) McCain is indeed an impressive campaigner, in addition to being the darling of the liberal Washington news media. New Hampshire is the mother of primary election surprises, and he conceivably could pull one there. The question is the immense gamble in finessing Iowa. Can McCain come out of Iowa's caucuses with only I % of the vote and still win New Hampshire? It's never been done before, but if McCain pulls it off, it's curtains for Iowa in the future.

3) In the meantime, Steve Forbes is trying to beat out McCain for the chief challenger's role by a strong second-or even an upset win-in Iowa. Forbes clearly is going to run some "comparative" ads against Bush, but try to keep them restrained enough so that they do not backfire against Forbes as they did in '96.

4) The withdrawal of Elizabeth Dole is supposed to help McCain, but early polling data shows more support going to Bush. Actually, there isn't all that much support to get. Quite apart from disappointing fundraising, her candidacy was a flop.

Senate 2000-New York: The latest John Zogby polling shows deep trouble for Hillary Clinton (D.). Apart from overwhelming support among African-Americans, she is running more poorly than expected among traditional Democratic groups: Jews, Hispanics, union families, women. New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani (R.) has a huge lead among Catholics, vindicating his seemingly unpopular stand on the Brooklyn museum flap.

Clinton fell badly in October's polls when she was traveling abroad-from Slovakia to Iceland-as First Lady. Since Democratic pros say she is improving as a campaigner, maybe she had better give up her First Lady duties and become a fulltime candidate. Leaning Republican Takeover.

Senate 2000-Rhode Island: The death of retiring Sen. John Chafee (R.) could mean that the Republican candidate to succeed him-Warwick Mayor Lincoln Chafee, his son-will fill the seat, at least temporarily, by appointment of Gov. Lincoln Almond (R.). But Republican insiders, noting that only a third of appointed senators are ever elected in their own right, think it might be best for him to keep campaigning rather than be tied down in the Senate (probably voting against the GOP leadership).

In any event, it's an uphill fight for young Chafee, even with that good political name. Rep. Robert Weygand (D.) is favored. Leaning Democratic Takeover.

The special report appears exclusively in HUMAN EvENTS. For subscription information on their Evans-Novak Political Report, call 800-789-5367.

Copyright Human Events Publishing, Inc. Nov 5, 1999
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