Gizzi on Politics

Missouri Waltz

One of the more stunning political turnarounds so far this year came in the race for governor of Missouri. After Republican Gov. Matt Blunt stunned the Show-Me State by announcing his retirement at age 37, fellow GOPer and Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder declared his candidacy for the top job within hours. Considered the most conservative of the three likely Republican candidates for governor, the 53-year-old Kinder was also considered the early favorite against State Treasurer Sarah Steelman and U.S. Rep. Kenny Hulshof.

But seven days later, Kinder dealt Missouri Republicans a "stunner" of his own by announcing he would run instead for re-election (for which he appears a strong favorite). Kinder cited his desire to continue serving as lieutenant governor, but sources close to the Cape Girardeau man told me that they felt that even if he won a hard-fought primary for bovernor, there would be an uphill battle in the fall against the certain Democratic nominee, State Atty. Gen. Jay Nixon.

Steelman, wife of former State House GOP Leader David Steelman and herself a former state senator, appears to be the nomination favorite now. Like Kinder, she was active as a college student in Ronald Reagan's 1976 bid for President and has been backed in past races by Missouri Right to Life. Steelman's lone detour from the conservative line appears to be her opposition to limits on how much trial lawyers can sue for (an apostasy also embraced by former GOP presidential candidate Fred Thompson).

Six-term Rep. Holshof is also considered a strong conservative (lifetime American Conservative Union: 90%) and he is likely to receive the backing of the outgoing governor's father, House GOP Whip Roy Blunt. Working against Hulshof are the basement-low ratings Congress now gets in polls and history. Missouri voters usually elect statewide officials to the governorship. One has to go back to 1910 to find the last time a House member moved up to the state's highest office.

A just-completed Rasmussen Poll shows Democrat Nixon defeating Steelman by 46% to 35% statewide among likely voters and Nixon also beating Hulshof by 48% to 30%.

The Boys From Syracuse

In making the case that Republicans will hold on to almost all of the 28 U.S. House districts from which GOP lawmakers are retiring this year, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole (R.-Okla.) last week told a press breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor that the bulk of the retirees were in historically Republican turf carried by George W. Bush in 2004.

But Cole also conceded there were exceptions and pointed to the 25th District of New York (Syracuse) being vacated by 10-term Republican James Walsh as a case in point. Walsh (lifetime ACU rating: 67%) is one of the eight retiring GOP lawmakers who represent a district that Massachusetts Democratic Sen. John Kerry carried in '04, and the 25th, in Cole's words, "is one that is moving away from us rather than toward us."

With the announced exodus of Walsh, son of former Syracuse Mayor and Rep. (1972-78) William Walsh, Republicans had hoped their standard-bearer would be Onondaga County District Attorney William Fitzpatrick. But the prosecutor, whose county covers 60% of the 25th District, announced recently that he would not run for Congress.

So Republicans are turning to their "B-team," with the two most-oft mentioned candidates being Peter Cappuccilli, director of the State Fair under former Republican Gov. (1994-2006) George Pataki, and Randy Wolken, head of the Manufacturers Association of Central New York (MACNY). Both have an advantage over Walsh in that, unlike the outgoing congressman, either Cappuccilli or Wolken would probably carry the ballot line of the New York State Conservative Party. Although the Conservative Party provided the winning margin for Walsh in his razor-thin (51 % to 49%) victory two years ago, party leaders have since indicated that they would not give him their line again because of his votes against the U.S. surge in Iraq.

Among Democrats, the name being mentioned most is that of former television reporter Dan Maffei, who came within 4,000 votes of unseating Walsh in '06. Maffei, one-time press secretary to House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel (D.-N.Y.), has been running since the '06 returns were made final, showing that two small counties in the district had saved Walsh from defeat. However, Maffei's nomination in '08 is by no means a foregone conclusion. The prospect of an open district could be enticing to other Democrats and both Syracuse Mayor Matt Driscoll and Councilwoman Stephanie Miner have voiced interest in a run for Congress.

The Other Primaries

With all of the attention on Hillary Clinton's three out of four wins in presidential primaries last week, it was understandable that the congressional primaries in Ohio and Texas were forgotten. The two most noteworthy primaries were waged against sitting congressmen who were until recently presidential candidates. Both Republican Ron Paul, in Texas's 14th District, and Democrat Dennis Kucinich, in Ohio's 10th District, were handily re-nominated.