Petraeus Cautions Iraq Progress Is Tenuous, Reversible

HUMAN EVENTS EXCLUSIVE

Citing the reduction in violence in most areas of Iraq in the past six to eight months, a confident but cautious Gen. David Petraeus told me Thursday that the progress in Iraq is both tenuous and reversible.

Gen. Petraeus spoke to me in an exclusive interview that was broadcast in on the Michael Reagan radio show and can be heard at HumanEvents.com.

Asked about al Qaeda's presence in Iraq and reports that the terrorist group was trying to regain its foothold there, Petraeus said that al Qaeda has not yet been defeated-or removed from Iraq and that it was trying to reestablish its control of areas that Coalition forces had secured.

"Well, it's really more that they're trying to come back into areas of Iraq from which they have been cleared, areas that we have been striving to hold, such as Anbar province," Petraeus said. "We've pushed tiiem farther and farther out from the Euphrates River Valley. But that was such an important transit route for them. The Euphrates River Valley really is a dagger pointed at the heart of Baghdad, as you know, from the West, coming in from Syria. And so they're really working very hard to try to reestablish, to put down a few roots out there in an area that they once, really largely, controlled."

"We're seeing the same in Baghdad neighborhoods," Petraeus continued. "Some of the 'Baghdad belts,' as they're called, the areas around Baghdad, from which they were ejected or killed or captured. And we should expect to see that. We're watching for it. We should expect to see them try to infiltrate the police, the army, to infiltrate the concerned local citizens. We've found a number of instances of this. So we've really just got to stay very vigilant, even as we endeavor to go after al Qaeda in the other areas, because they're certainly not out of Iraq. But they are very much a presence, as I mentioned, in Mosul and Ninewa province."

Successful Counterinsurgency

The surge in strength of American ground forces enabled Petraeus to implement a so-far successful counterinsurgency strategy that has-overall-reduced violence in Iraq by about 65% in the last six to eight months. But, he added, "there's a lot of tough work to do in Mosul. Frankly, there's a lot of tough work to do throughout Iraq. Despite this progress, we are very quick to caution that it is tenuous, it is reversible. It has to be cemented by gains in the political arena, in provision of better basic services to the people, in more economic opportunities, better local governments, and all the rest of that. And those are tall orders."

The Republican and Democratic candidates have polar opposite positions on continuing the American presence in Iraq. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has said he'd begin withdrawing troops from Iraq immediately and would have all troops out within 16 months. Obama hedged his bet recently, saying that if al Qaeda was establishing a base in Iraq, further action might be required. New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has said she would, as President, begin withdrawal immediately from Iraq and task the Pentagon leaders to draft a plan for complete withdrawal. She has not yet set a time table.

Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain has staked his candidacy on success in Iraq. In his speech on the night of March 4 when he clinched the GOP nomination, McCain said, "I will defend the decision to destroy Saddam Hussein's regime." McCain, who is a long-time supporter of the troop surge has said repeatedly that he would keep U.S. forces in Iraq as long as it was necessary to defeat the enemy. He said, "It's not a matter of how long we're in Iraq-it's if we succeed or not."

How Soon Can Withdrawal Begin?

How soon can American forces be withdrawn if they are to be? I asked Gen. Petraeus without reference to any of the candidates' positions. Can we-and should we-begin a comprehensive withdrawal in January 2009?

Gen. Petraeus said, "Well, it depends on what the conditions are in January. And, in fact, I think that we, right now, have quite a sensible way forward. As you know, we're in the process of withdrawing over one-quarter of our ground combat forces. Five of our 20 brigade combat teams-plus, really, me equivalent of another brigade combat team, in terms of its combat elements, in the form of two Marine battahons and a Marine expeditionary unit-that's already gone home. One brigade's already gone home, another is literally packing up right now. That's a very substantial reduction that will be complete by the end of July."

If we do withdraw, what effect will it have on the tenuous and reversible progress that has been made?

Petraeus-who is keenly aware of the strain on U.S. forces by repeated, long deployments-told me that "we've got to be very careful not to jeopardize the gains that we and our Iraqi partners have fought so hard to achieve. And, as I mentioned, there is a fragility to the progress that we've made. We should expect al Qaeda to try to rebound. Al Qaeda's like a fighter who's been dropped to the canvas a couple of times but comes back off that canvas. And we've seen this. In recent months, a tragic suicide vest attack during the recent celebration, the recent holy celebration, here, during which between six and nine million people walked to the holy shrine in Karbala, just South of Baghdad."