Defector Could Be Key to Regime Change in Iran

During the Cold War, the occasional Soviet defector-a government official or military officer-excited little interest from us. Some defectors did provide useful intelligence, but most of them told us what we already knew: that there was dissent within the eroding Soviet Union. Since 9/11, we have captured or killed many terrorist leaders, but the apparent defection of a top Iranian general has been unheard of.

Sometimes America gets a lucky break upon which can be built decisive advantages against an adversary. It appears that the defection of Iran's former deputy Defense minister. Brig. Gen. AIi Reza Asghari, may be one of those seminal events.

Power Struggle

Gen. Asghari went missing during a February 7 visit during a stop-over in Istanbul sanctioned by the Iranian government after doing his dirty arms work with Hezbollah and Syria. Naturally, the official Iranian government response was that Asghari was probably kidnapped by Western intelligence sources. This was the position taken in news reports by the head of Iran's National Police, Gen. Ismail Ahmadi-Moghhaddam. What Moghaddam failed to mention was that Asghari's wife and family reportedly left Iran just before Asghari went missing (though this is now in doubt) and that he had sold his house in Tehran in December, all-the Iranians would have us believe-by happenstance. It appears that Asghari's defection was carefully planned and executed, and, from all reports, it seems he is cooperating with his interrogators.

The mere fact that Asghari apparently defected and is cooperating with his interrogators is of enormous significance. We know the Iranian regime is faltering economically (with the drop in oil production) and politically (among the majority of the Iranian populace). The defection of a top general could signal a power struggle within and that could create many opportunities for us to empower the Iranian opposition.

Of immediate importance, there should be a wealth of information Asghari can reveal. He was the founding father of Hezbollah in Lebanon in the 1980s and was the key leader in the development of the short- and mediumrange missiles projects at the Iranian Defense Industries Organization in the 1990s. His résumé also includes work on secret nuclear procurement programs from 1996-1997, during which he traveled frequently to Russia, China, North Korea and Southeast Asia cutting deals for Iranian nuclear development.

Asghari can provide the intelligence community and war fighters information that even the appeasers cannot deny. To date, Iran is responsible for killing more than 200 American soldiers and wounding more than 635 with the introduction of their powerful Explosively Formed Penetrators (EFPs) into Iraq. Asghari can probably provide information linking the top officials in the mullahocracy to this act of war.

Ashgari was a senior member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and has intimate knowledge of the Qods (Jerusalem) Force units currently operating in Iraq. They are primarily responsible for the surge in Shia-Sunni sectarian violence during the last year because they initiated the attack on the Golden Mosque in Samarra along with elements of al Qaeda. In addition to the United States causalities, Ashgari can verify the attack on the mosque and may let us know that Iran may be nearing success with its nuclear program.

Other questions are not readily answered. Can Asghari verify the depth of Iran's involvement not only in Iraq's continuing problems but also in the terrorist undermining of the whole Arabian peninsula? Can he give the West details of Iran's nuclear weapons development schedule? On issues such as these, wars are won and lost. The question is how best to use the intelligence gifts Asghari may have brought.

The Asghari information will, because he was so high in the Iranian regime, be very hard to verify. But not impossible. With our own intelligence assets and those of allies such as Israel, we may be able to assemble answers to any number of puzzles with Asghari's information. To capitalize on it, without delay, will be the challenge the President has to meet.

The President cannot continue with our current non-policy toward Iran. Iran is bent on destabilizing and dominating the Arabian Peninsula from Lebanon through Gaza into Iraq with a stopover in Bahrain. The situation has gotten so serious that King Abdullah of Jordan called it a Shia crescent sweeping across the Arabian Peninsula and King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia summoned Vice President Dick Cheney to Riyadh last fall. The Iranian leadership thinks that we are pinned down in Iraq by the insurgency and in Washington by the congressional Democrats. The President has to prove them wrong and cannot do so by engaging in feckless negotiations with Iran about Iraq. There are concrete steps we can take.

First, we should form a coalition of the willing with Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Gulf States, Turkey, Australia and those European allies with the courage to face this evil nation down. No more denial or hoping Iran will negotiate its nuclear weapons development away. It is time to establish a deadline for UN action against the Iranian nuclear program. Either they meet it, or we take the matter away from the UN.