Content provided in partnership with
Bankers consider predictions made years ago
Northwestern Financial Review, Aug 5, 2000 by Bengtson, Tom
An industry survey and a time capsule sealed years ago recently were opened by Minnesota banking organizations. The Minnesota Bankers Association took time at its annual convention to consider predictions made by members a decade ago, and on July 10 officials from U.S. Bancorp opened a time capsule that was sealed in 1962 in the Farmers & Mechanics Savings Bank building at 6th Street and Marquette Avenue in downtown Minneapolis. Both events tell us a little about how past generations viewed the future.
- Most Popular Articles in News
- The Ten Best Laptop bags
- Tata plans cheapest-ever car for Indian market
- GLOBALIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF UNDERDEVELOPMENT OF THE THIRD WORLD
- Corn is good for you; Corn is not only a tasty treat, but also a cereal that ...
- THE 50 BEST STYLISH HANDBAGS TO CARRY
- More »
Following the centennial anniversary convention of the MBA in the summer of 1989, the association solicited predictions from members about what the industry might look like in the year 2000. Those predictions were compiled in a one-page essay sealed in an envelope opened at the 2000 convention at Cragun's Resort near Brainerd. Don Kuehnast, 1999-2000 MBA president, read the predictions.
"By the year 2000, banking customers will be able to buy airline tickets from automated teller machines, home banking via personal computers will be commonplace, and the number of farms in the state will decline by about 10,000," Kuehnast reported.
Bankers were characteristically cautious in predicting interest rates. "Asked to predict the average rate of interest paid on a $1,000, six-month certificate of deposit in June 2000, bankers predicted interest rates that ranged from 2 percent to 12.4 percent. Most predicted 8 percent," Kuehnast said. One banker predicted in 1989 that banks will no longer offer certificates with maturities longer than three months "due to the shortening attention span of the investor."
Many bankers predicted Minnesota banks will be permitted to offer brokerage and real estate services. Everyone predicted the number of farms in the state would fall from its 1989 total of 94,000. Most said the number will decline to between 80,000 and 85,000. That turned out to be an accurate prediction. The Minnesota Agricultural Statistics service reports there are 80,000 farms in Minnesota.
Bankers in 1989 also predicted unanimously that the cost of postage will increase. Most predicted it would cost 50 cents to mail a first class letter in 2000.
Bankers also agreed that the number of banks would decline. Some said the number would fall to as low as 200 banks. Most predicted the number would be between 400 and 500. In fact, Minnesota had 630 banks in 1989 and currently has 496 banks.
Capsule Opened
Two weeks later, U.S. Bancorp chairman Jack Grundhofer hosted a ceremony where a time capsule in the F&M Savings Bank building was opened. The F&M Savings Bank was started in 1874. In 1941, the bank's building was constructed. In 1962, an addition was constructed, and a time capsule was included. Carl Pohlad's Marquette Bank group purchased the F&M Savings Bank in 1982, and the bank was sold to U.S. Bancorp (then First Bank System) in 1992.
The time capsule contained two copies of Commercial West magazine, the predecessor to Northwestern Financial Review. It also contained copies of newspapers, the 1962 Farmers Almanac, F&M savings account passbooks, photos of the city of Minneapolis and much more. Much of the media at the capsule opening were interested in a baseball and football autographed by players from the Minnesota Twins and Vikings professional teams.
The capsule also included comments delivered by F&M Savings Bank president John DeLaittre when the capsule was sealed in 1962. At that time, he posed these questions:
What will food be like in 2000? A series of pills you pop in your mouth periodically? We hope not, for your sake. You would have enjoyed a good steak at one of the fine restaurants.
What will fashions be like? Men and women dressed alike? Some signs of our times point to this but, again, we hope not!
What will transportation be like? Heliports ringing the city where commuters converge and leave their cars? Maybe your car will run, almost frictionless, on air. Or will you simply fasten on your flying belts and wing your way to the office?
How about housing? Plastic "rooms" that can be rearranged for any occasion? Solar heating?
What will the United States dollar be worth? Will inflation continue as it has in recent decades? Will you pay a dollar for a five-cent cigar?
DeLaittre commented further that he was intrigued by the thought of space travel and exploration. "A trip to Mars or beyond may not be an uncommon occurrence in 2000," he said.
DeLaittre concluded on a serious note: "The history books will tell yob about the Cold War between America and the West vs. Russia and the East. Call it conflict between democracy and free enterprise as opposed to communism and a rigidly controlled economy. Today, the outcome is worrying everybody. Maybe in 38 years men will have learned how to live in 'one world! At least that is our hope and prayer as we seal this time capsule."
Copyright NFR Communications Inc Aug 5, 2000
Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning Company. All rights Reserved
