Still-cautious clientele keep casual-dining sector in slump

Nation's Restaurant News,  Nov 12, 2007  by Malcolm M. Knapp

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Year-to-date comparable-restaurant sales in August were down 0.6 percent. Year-to-date comparable-restaurant guest counts were down 2.9 percent.

Through the first eight months of 2007, all-restaurant sales for the sector rose 5.1 percent. Year-to-date all-restaurant guest counts were up 2.9 percent through August.

For the first quarter of the year, comparable-restaurant sales fell 1.9 percent; for the second quarter they dipped 0.2 percent

Guest counts for the first quarter, on a same-store basis, fell 4 percent. They were off 2.3 percent for the second quarter.

All-restaurant sales gains for the sector rose 3.7 percent for the first quarter and 5.6 percent for the second quarter. All-restaurant guest counts for the two periods rose 1.8 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively.

Malcolm M. Knapp is president of Malcolm M. Knapp Inc. Knapp-Track[TM] is an exclusive report on the casual-theme and dinnerhouse segment, presented on a monthly basis. Based on actual, unpublished results received from key chains, Knapp- Track[TM] offers a realistic gauge of the segment's performance. All percentage changes reflect nominal dollars.

The monthly same-store sales data are indicative of basic industry health, while the same-store customer traffic reflects the underlying strength of consumer demand.

Monthly all-store sales provide a benchmark against which the reported sales change of published quarterly reports can be measured; monthly all-store customer traffic is a proxy for real growth.

The year-to-date comparisons for all four categories provide perspective as the year unfolds, giving a fix on where the business is at any point in time.

Knapp- Track[TM] subscribers, representing more than $29 billion in sales, include Acapulco, Applebee's, Benihana, Bennigan 's, Buca di Beppo, Chevys, Chili's, Don Pablo's, LongHorn Steakhouse, Lone Star Steakhouse & Saloon, The Olive Garden, On The Border, Outback Steak House, P.F. Chang's, Pizzeria Uno, Red Lobster, Smokey Bones, Macaroni Grill. and T G.I. Friday's.

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