High-costs, consumer cutbacks portend '08 woes

Nation's Restaurant News,  Jan 7, 2008  

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REGIONS RANKED
BY TOTAL PROJECTED
RESTAURANT SALES IN 2008

                           SALES
                       ($ BILLIONS) *
1 Southeast               $102.77
2 Midwest                  $89.95
3 West                     $78.10
4 Mid-Atlantic             $68.26
5 Southwest-Mountain       $65.83
6 New England              $23.95


REGIONS RANKED BY
PERCENT CHANGE IN SALES
NOMINAL 2007 TO 2008

                       NOMINAL   REAL **
                        % CHG.   % CHG.

1 Southwest-Mountain     5.8       2.2
2 Southeast              4.7       1.1
2 West                   4.7       1.1
4 Mid-Atlantic           4.5       0.9
5 New England            4.1       0.5
6 Midwest                3.7       0.1

* Includes sales at eating places and managed-
restaurant-services providers.

** Real growth rates adjusted for the projected
3.6 percent menu price inflation

SOURCE: NATIONAL RESTAURANT ASSOCIATION/NATION'S RESTAURANT NEWS

RESTAURANT INDUSTRY FOOD-AND-DRINK SALES
PROJECTED THROUGH 2008

                                     2005 EST.      2007 PROD.
                                     F&D SALES      F&D SALES
GROUP I--COMMERCIAL                    ($0.00)      ($0.00)
REST. SERVICES (1)
EATING PLACES
Full-service restaurants (2)        $165,170,335   $179,679,723
Limited-service restaurants (3)      136,903,266    150,217,108
Cafeterias, grill-buffets              5,022,802      5,168,313
   and buffets (4)
Social caterers                        5,281,527      6,052,439
Snack and nonalcoholic                17,150,344     19,604,419
   beverage bars
TOTAL EATING PLACES                 $329,528,274   $360,722,002
Bars and taverns                      15,001,593     15,961,485
TOTAL EATING-AND-DRINKING PLACES    $344,529,867   $376,683,487

MANAGED SERVICES (6)
Manufacturing and                     $6,570,196     $7,162,918
   industrial plants
Commercial and office buildings        2,225,724      2,458,528
Hospitals and nursing homes            3,575,006      4,154,103
Colleges and universities              9,282,579     10,949,312
Primary and secondary schools          4,184,106      4,848,634
In-transit restaurant                  2,016,135      2,023,231
   services (airlines)
Recreation and sports centers          4,176,436      4,565,112
TOTAL MANAGED SERVICES               $32,030,182    $36,161,838

LODGING PLACES
Hotel restaurants                    $23,474,378    $25,855,384
Other accommodation restaurants          379,977        406,967
TOTAL LODGING PLACES                 $23,854,355    $26,262,351

Retail-host restaurants (7)          $22,501,949    $24,864,991
Recreation and sports (8)             11,397,195     12,735,094
Mobile caterers                          914,062        999,014
Vending and nonstore                   9,781,278     10,583,925
   retailers (9)
TOTAL--GROUP I                      $445,008,888   $488,290,700

GROUP II--NONCOMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES (10)
Employee restaurant                     $548,284       $471,767
   services (11)
Public and parochial                   5,319,838      5,582,206
   elementary, secondary
   schools
Colleges and universities              5,687,262      5,812,734
Transportation                         1,561,242      1,756,803
Hospitals (12)                        12,331,797     13,454,082
Nursing homes, homes for               6,264,498      6,851,324
   the aged, blind, orphans
   and the mentally
   and physically
   disabled (13)
Clubs, sporting and                    8,060,874      8,819,717
   recreational camps
Community centers                      1,642,370      1,786,452
TOTAL--GROUP II                      $41,416,165    $44,535,085
TOTAL--GROUPS I AND II              $486,425,053   $532,825,785

GROUP III--NONCOMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES (14)
Officers' and NCO clubs               $1,186,604     $1,303,252
   (open mess)
Military exchanges                       545,452        591,664
TOTAL--GROUP III                      $1,732,056     $1,894,916

GRAND TOTAL                         $488,157,109   $534,720,701

                                      2008 PROJ.
                                       F&D SALES        '07-'08
GROUP I--COMMERCIAL                     ($0.00)          % CHG.
REST. SERVICES (1)
EATING PLACES
Full-service restaurants (2)         $187,405,951          4.3%
Limited-service restaurants (3)       156,826,661          4.4
Cafeterias, grill-buffets               5,116,630         -1.0
   and buffets (4)
Social caterers                         6,451,900          6.6
Snack and nonalcoholic                 20,937,519          6.8
   beverage bars
TOTAL EATING PLACES                  $376,738,661          0.0%
Bars and taverns                       16,456,291          3.1
TOTAL EATING-AND-DRINKING PLACES     $393,194,952 (5)      4.4%

MANAGED SERVICES (6)
Manufacturing and                      $7,400,824          3.3%
   industrial plants
Commercial and office buildings         2,564,245          4.3
Hospitals and nursing homes             4,461,507          7.4
Colleges and universities              11,908,253          8.8
Primary and secondary schools           5,178,341          6.8
In-transit restaurant                   2,002,999         -1.0
   services (airlines)
Recreation and sports centers           4,765,977          4.4
TOTAL MANAGED SERVICES                $38,282,146          5.9%

LODGING PLACES
Hotel restaurants                     $27,174,009          5.1%
Other accommodation restaurants           424,060          4.2
TOTAL LODGING PLACES                  $27,598,069          5.1%

Retail-host restaurants (7)           $26,154,477          5.2%
Recreation and sports (8)              13,226,094          3.9
Mobile caterers                         1,027,985          2.9
Vending and nonstore                   10,946,626          3.4
   retailers (9)
TOTAL--GROUP I                       $510,430,349          4.5%

GROUP II--NONCOMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES (10)
Employee restaurant                      $464,998         -1.4%
   services (11)
Public and parochial                    5,737,533          2.8
   elementary, secondary
   schools
Colleges and universities               5,869,925          1.0
Transportation                          1,838,585          4.7
Hospitals (12)                         13,844,250          2.9
Nursing homes, homes for                7,077,418          3.3
   the aged, blind, orphans
   and the mentally
   and physically
   disabled (13)
Clubs, sporting and                     9,200,221          4.3
   recreational camps
Community centers                       1,841,832          3.1
TOTAL--GROUP II                       $45,874,762          3.0%
TOTAL--GROUPS I AND II               $556,305,111          4.4%

GROUP III--NONCOMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES (14)
Officers' and NCO clubs                $1,382,750          6.1%
   (open mess)
Military exchanges                        630,714          6.6
TOTAL- GROUP III                       $2,013,464          6.3%

GRAND TOTAL                          $558,318,575          4.4%

                                              '03-08
                                    '07-08   COMPOUND
                                    %REAL     ANNUAL
                                    GROWTH    GROWTH
GROUP I--COMMERCIAL                  CHG.      RATE
REST. SERVICES (1)
EATING PLACES
Full-service restaurants (2)         0.7%       4.3%
Limited-service restaurants (3)      0.8        4.6
Cafeterias, grill-buffets           -4.6        0.6
   and buffets (4)
Social caterers                      3.0        6.9
Snack and nonalcoholic               3.2        6.9
   beverage bars
TOTAL EATING PLACES                  0.8%       4.6%
Bars and taverns                    -0.6        3.1
TOTAL EATING-AND-DRINKING PLACES     0.8%       4.5%

MANAGED SERVICES (6)
Manufacturing and                   -0.3%       4.0%
   industrial plants
Commercial and office buildings      0.7        4.8
Hospitals and nursing homes          3.8        7.7
Colleges and universities            4.7        8.7
Primary and secondary schools        3.2        7.4
In-transit restaurant               -4.6       -0.2
   services (airlines)
Recreation and sports centers        0.8        4.5
TOTAL MANAGED SERVICES               2.1%       6.1%

LODGING PLACES
Hotel restaurants                    1.5%       5.0%
Other accommodation restaurants      0.6        3.7
TOTAL LODGING PLACES                 1.5%       5.0%

Retail-host restaurants (7)          1.6%       5.1%
Recreation and sports (8)            0.2        5.1
Mobile caterers                     -0.7        4.0
Vending and nonstore                 0.8        3.8
   retailers (9)
TOTAL--GROUP I                       0.9%       4.7%

GROUP II--NONCOMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES (10)
Employee restaurant                 -4.0%      -5.3%
   services (11)
Public and parochial                -0.8        2.6
   elementary, secondary
   schools
Colleges and universities           -3.1        1.1
Transportation                       1.9        5.6
Hospitals (12)                       1.6        3.9
Nursing homes, homes for             1.3        4.2
   the aged, blind, orphans
   and the mentally
   and physically
   disabled (13)
Clubs, sporting and                  0.6        4.5
   recreational camps
Community centers                    1.1        3.9
TOTAL--GROUP II                      0.4%       3.5%
TOTAL--GROUPS I AND II               0.9%       4.6%

GROUP III--NONCOMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES (14)
Officers' and NCO clubs              2.5%       5.2%
   (open mess)
Military exchanges                   3.0        5.0
TOTAL- GROUP III                     2.7%       5.1%

GRAND TOTAL                          0.9%       4.6%

FOOTNOTES

(1.) Data are given only for establishments with payroll.

(2.) Waiter/waitress service is provided, and the order is taken while
the patron is seated. Patrons pay after they eat.

(3.) Patrons generally order at a cash register or select items from a
food bar and pay before they eat.

(4.) Formerly commercial cafeterias.

(5.) Food-and-drink sales for non-payroll establishments should total
$14,379,836,000.

(6.) Also referred to as on-site food-service and food contractors.

(7.) Includes drug- and proprietary-store restaurants, general-
merchandise-store restaurants, variety-store restaurants, food-store
restaurants and grocery-store restaurants (including a portion of
delis and all salad bars), gasoline-service-station restaurants and
miscellaneous retailers.

(8.) Includes movies, bowling lanes, recreation and sport centers.

(9.) Includes sales of hot food, sandwiches, pastries, coffee and
other hot beverages.

(10.) Business, educational, governmental or institutional
organizations that operate their own restaurant services.

(11.) Includes industrial and commercial organizations, seagoing
and inland-waterway vessels.

(12.) Includes voluntary and proprietary hospitals; long-term general,
TB, nervous and mental hospitals; and sales or commercial equivalent
to employees in state and local short-term hospitals and federal
hospitals.

(13.) Sales (commercial equivalent) calculated for nursing homes
and homes for the aged only. All others in this grouping make no
charge for food served either in cash or in kind.

(14.) Continental United States only.

SOURCE: NATIONAL RESTAURANT ASSOCIATION

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