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Passing California's Proposition 5
Campaigns & Elections, Feb, 1999 by Richard Maullin
Its messenger, "big Nevada casinos," had been tainted by Prop 5's early framing [TABULAR DATA OMITTED] of the issues. Now the campaign worked to show the fallacy of opposition messages while underscoring the motive behind them. The Yes on 5 campaign had rebuttal spots produced, tested and on the air with-in 48 hours following the initial airing of an opposition spot.
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In addition to its direct counter spots, the Prop 5 campaign aired several proactive 30-second TV spots as well as a 15-minute documentary primarily on cable. The documentary used Indian scholars and tribal spokespersons to recount the history of California Indians, and showed modern day reservation Indians telling how gaming had changed their quality of life. As Chuck Winner, partner in the Winner/Wagner & Mandabach firm, noted "the documentary and the proactive spots were crucial in providing voters with a historical context and an understanding of why Prop 5's passage was so important to California Indians."
Finally, the gaming tribes engaged in an extensive grassroots campaign. Door hangers were hung; tribal members engaged voters in face-to-face conversations; and individual tribal members made persuasion phone calls nightly for months, thus bringing a personal Indian presence to thousands who had never met a Native American. Further, members of the tribes visited editorial boards and various organizations throughout the state to present the case for Prop 5 and obtain important third-party support.
The End Game
The occasional dip in Prop 5 support following some of the opponents' advertising salvos led several analysts to predict the initiative's defeat. One, Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo, observed from their numbers, "These figures do not bode well for the measure. The trend usually continues when voters start to defect a month before election day. Undecided voters also have a tendency to vote no." Nevertheless, the campaign's voter tracking surveys continued to provide daily confirmation that the campaign's strategy was on the right track.
On the eve of the election, internal polling showed Prop 5 with majorities or strong pluralities among every major voter group except archconservatives. In fact, support actually increased about 5 percent in the last five days, causing the San Diego Union Tribune to comment that, "Proposition 5 ran counter to historical trends, gathering momentum in the final weeks when contested initiatives usually lose support."
In addition to our firm and Winner/Wagner & Mandabach, the pro-5 campaign team was ably supported by a team of consultants including Joe Shumate Associates, Michael Galizio, Steve Glazer, Leo Briones, Karen Waters, direct mail expert Mike Myers, opinion researchers Moore Methods and Opinion Dynamics and tribal consultants including Rod Wilson, Waltona Manion, Nicki Symington, Cerrell & Associates and the staff of the California Nations Indian Gaming Association.
Although Robert Stern, from the Center for Governmental Studies, praised the campaign for running "one of the classic campaigns of all time," in the end, the real credit for the proposition success goes to the Indian tribes themselves. They put all they had on the line for their cause, and the public responded by providing them with an overwhelming victory.
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