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Methods for investigating goal-oriented PSI

Journal of Parapsychology, The, March, 1995 by J.E. Kennedy

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PK as a Force Versus Precognitive Timing

May et al. (1985) proposed using a similar strategy as an elegant means to investigate the old question of whether PK operates with a force-like mechanism that biases the random process or with a precognitive-timing mechanism that selects favorable random fluctuations of the random process. If PK is actually a precognitive-timing mechanism, then PK tasks using true RNGs will have the same properties as precognitive-timing tasks with pseudorandom number generators. Because psi can operate only on the timing decisions for the precognitive model, but on each RNG event for the force-like model, the number of opportunities for psi to operate (redundancy) is very different in the two models.

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Based on the assumption that the amount of information utilized is the same for each timing decision, May et al. (1985) hypothesized that the precognitive-timing model will result in the z score for the RNG outcomes from one timing decision being unrelated to the number of RNG outcomes collected for the decision. On the other hand, if psi operates as a force biasing the RNG outcomes, then each RNG event would be an opportunity for psi to operate, and the z scores will increase with the square root of the number of RNG outcomes for each timing decision.

The initial meta-analysis results reported by May et al. (1985) were consistent with the precognitive-timing hypothesis and were significantly different from the results expected with the hypothesis of a force-like mechanism.

Unfortunately, these results are not distinguishable from goal-oriented psi if the goal is the outcome of each timing decision or higher on the hierarchy of goals. This strategy is also confounded by the assumption that the same amount of information is utilized per timing decision, regardless of the number of trials, amount of feedback, and related factors of psychological involvement and motivation. As noted in the previous section, Vassy's (1986) direct investigation of this assumption failed to support it. In addition, the analysis by May et al. has several unresolved methodological issues, particularly concerning the simulated data that constituted almost 30% of the data in the analysis (Kennedy, 1994).

Lability

The concept of lability proposed by Braud (1981) apparently includes both the a priori probability and redundancy aspects of information processing. According to Braud, a system with high lability easily changes state, whereas a system with low lability resists change. Thus, a system with high lability apparently has a relatively large a priori probability of changing state, and a system with low lability has a small a priori probability of changing state. Likewise, Braud discusses cases with multiple opportunities for psi to operate to achieve the desired outcome as situations with potentially higher lability.

Braud proposes that systems with high lability are more susceptible to psi effects. However, in the context of goal-oriented psi, the evidence is strong that redundant opportunities for psi may or may not increase psi operation, depending on the goal of the psi source. The lability hypothesis also appears to predict that psi effects will be reduced for events or tasks that have a small a priori probability of occurring by chance. Relevant data for this easily tested hypothesis would be obtained from a general investigation of psi functioning on tasks with different a priori probabilities of success.

Methods for investigating goal-oriented PSI

Journal of Parapsychology, The, March, 1995 by J.E. Kennedy

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