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Methods for investigating goal-oriented PSI
Journal of Parapsychology, The, March, 1995 by J.E. Kennedy
The assumption that the average information transmitted per trial is constant as more data are aggregated is the basis of normal statistical research methodology. The chi-square value or total information transmitted is expected to increase as the sample size increases. This assumption leads directly to the expectation that the z score (which is the square root of chi-square) is linearly related to the square root of sample size. Thus, the redundancy factor and amount of information transmitted are interwoven.
The relationships among information transmitted, a priori probability of a hit, and partial information on individual trials are important but basically unexplored areas.
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Precognitive Timing
Efforts to use precognitive timing tasks to investigate task complexity and goal-oriented psi are primarily investigations of the a priori probability of a hit factor. In precognitive timing tasks, a pseudorandom number generator generates numbers at a rate much faster than human reaction time. A random outcome or trial is selected when the subject pushes a button. Vassy (1985, 1986) proposed using precognitive timing tasks to study goal-oriented psi by varying the number of pseudorandom outcomes collected for each button press or timing decision. He suggested that with goal-oriented psi the scoring rate on the pseudorandom outcomes would be independent of the number of outcomes collected for a timing decision. However, the a priori probability of obtaining a given scoring rate depends on the number of outcomes. For example, if 100 binary (p = .5) pseudorandom outcomes are collected from one timing decision (button press), the a priori probability of getting a 60% or higher scoring rate on the 100 outcomes by chance is .028. But if 10 pseudorandom outcomes are collected for one timing decision, the probability of getting a 60% or higher scoring rate .38. Thus, this strategy compares conditions that have different a priori probabilities and assumes that goal-oriented psi operates independently of the a priori probability of a hit. This assumption requires that more information is transmitted or utilized for cases with small a priori probabilities of a hit and, as noted in the previous sections, does not appear consistent with available data in other contexts.
The results of a precognitive timing experiment did not support Vassy's assumptions for goal-oriented psi. Vassy (1986) used the precognitive timing methodology to see if either the scoring rate or information transmitted (significance level) was constant for different numbers of pseudorandom events per timing decision. Significant evidence for psi was obtained with one pseudorandom outcome per timing decision, but the results were mixed for two outcomes per decision and nonsignificant for three, four, and five outcomes per decision. Thus, the data did not support either model.
The precognitive-timing methodology is basically a complicated means to investigate the a priori probability of a hit factor. However, this methodology also offers a means to investigate the role of multiple feedback events for one timing decision and the related issue of the amount of psychological involvement in one timing decision.
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