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Methods for investigating goal-oriented PSI
Journal of Parapsychology, The, March, 1995 by J.E. Kennedy
Information about the Psi Task
Blind PK and blind matching are cases where the amount of information to achieve a psi task appears to vary if measured relative to normal sensory information-processing for the task. These are special cases of the general principle that success on PK tasks does not depend on the degree to which the subject understands the details of the random process being influenced. In an extension of this point, Schmidt (1987) proposed the "equivalence hypothesis" that the magnitude of psi effects does not depend on the physical processes or details of truly random processes if the observation or feedback is psychologically identical. As with redundancy, the a priori probability of a hit is the same for the different conditions or tasks.
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A Priori Probability of Success
In the quantitative, mathematical use of the term, information refers to the reduction of uncertainty. A task with six equally likely outcomes has a greater amount of uncertainty than a task with two equally likely outcomes. A priori probability is a key aspect of information-processing and has been recognized as an important means to gain insight into the psi process (Kennedy, 1978; Scott, 1961; Thouless, 1935).
The approximately equal deviations in high- and low- aim psi tasks has long been recognized as evidence that psi appears to involve partial information on a relatively large number of trials rather than complete information on a few trials (Thouless, 1935). In general, if psi produces a strong effect on a few trials, then a psi task with a very small a priori probability of a hit due to chance is the optimal means to obtain highly significant results. For example, if ESP provides complete information about the target on 10 of 100 trials, then a task with a probability of a hit due to chance on each trial of .01 (or .000001) will give much more significant results than a task with a probability of .5. The available data generally do not appear consistent with this model; however, the role of a priori probability has received very little research effort, relative to its importance (Kennedy, 1978).
I believe that the partial information characteristics of psi have profound implications that are not yet understood. The goal-oriented psi hypothesis may resolve some of the questions about partial information; however, how psi processes information for low-probability events remains an important question. This question is particularly important for possible goal-oriented psi experimenter effects because the goal of achieving a significant result on an experiment has a relatively low a priori probability due to chance (usually .05).
Information Transmitted or Utilized
The quantitative amount of information transmitted on a psi task is closely related to the resulting chi-square value (Schmidt, 1970; Timm, 1973) and therefore is monotonically related to the statistical significance level of the outcome and to other common statistics such as (absolute value of) z and t. The chi-square value divided by sample size is a measure of the average information transmitted or utilized per trial.
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