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Methods for investigating goal-oriented PSI
Journal of Parapsychology, The, March, 1995 by J.E. Kennedy
[TABULAR DATA FOR TABLE 1 OMITTED]
In accordance with the goal-oriented psi hypothesis, the results of majority-vote studies appear to vary with the experimenters' goals at the time of data collection. When Cox did a post hoc majority-vote analysis on data previously collected without signal enhancement in mind, the z score for the raw trials (z = 2.94) was larger than for the majority-vote results (z = 2.68), as expected with normal communication theory (see Kennedy, 1978). However, he found a very different pattern on the three subsequent studies noted in Table 1 when he collected data with the specific intent to use majority votes to enhance psi accuracy. Likewise, the absence of signal enhancement with majority votes in Schmidt's (1974) study is in accordance with his expectations at the time, but other experimenters have expected and found increased scoring rates with majority votes.
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The hypothesis of efficient goal-oriented psi has profound implications when combined with the hierarchy of goals. The majority-vote studies indicate that a goal can be achieved with minimal or no psi effect on lower levels of the hierarchy. If this principle applies at the higher levels of the hierarchy of goals, an experimenter could, for example, obtain the goal of a successful line of research with minimal psi effects for individual experiments. Also, the experimenter's goal may shift to a higher level on the hierarchy as the research is replicated. For example, an experimenter may focus on success on the individual subjects in the first study, on the experimental outcome in the second study, and on the line of research in the third study. If each of these sequential goals is achieved efficiently, the statistical significance of the experimental outcomes would be expected to decline across studies.
Perhaps the often discussed elusive, capricious nature of psi actually reflects goals being achieved very efficiently, with minimal psi effects on the lower levels of the hierarchy of goals. Decline effects within and/or across experiments might be expected with shifting goals. The declines in significance across studies that frequently have been found in parapsychology and historically have been attributed to declines in enthusiasm by the experimenters (see Kennedy & Taddonio, 1976) may be a manifestation of a more fundamental aspect of psi operation.
The concept of efficient psi provides a methodology to investigate goal-oriented psi in a variety of situations that would otherwise be difficult to investigate. In the studies using majority-vote methods to enhance psi accuracy, the apparent patterns of efficient psi revealed the nonapplicability of normal statistical assumptions below the psi source's goals on the hierarchy of goals. This provides evidence for goal-oriented psi and a means to investigate it. In general, the hypothesis of efficient goal-oriented psi can be tested by exploring the most efficient way to achieve a goal or outcome. For example, one might explore hypotheses about the most efficient way (i.e., minimal psi effects) to obtain hits on free response trials, differences between two conditions, or successful lines of research.
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