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Methods for investigating goal-oriented PSI

Journal of Parapsychology, The, March, 1995 by J.E. Kennedy

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Similarly, with goal-oriented psi, a key statistical assumption for experimental design and analysis does not apply to outcomes that are below the psi source's goal on the hierarchy, but does apply above the goal. Under the usual assumptions of statistics, larger sample sizes give more reliable results and greater statistical significance. With these assumptions, the sample size represents multiple measures of the effect under study and thus is a form of redundancy. As discussed in a previous paper and in the appendix, the significance level (e.g., z score) is expected to increase linearly with the square root of sample size (Kennedy, 1994). On the other hand, goal-oriented psi experimenter effects will bypass this type of redundancy and cause a significant result directly on the experimental outcome as a unit, independent of the sample size. Here too, if the goal of the psi source was the outcome of each trial or subject, then the usual statistical methods would apply.

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The critical question of what determines the goal of the psi source has yet to be answered. Psychological factors such as motivation presumably play a decisive role. On a commonsense level, the goal is the outcome that the psi source has the strongest motivation to obtain. Observational theories (Millar, 1978) propose that feedback is a necessary factor, an idea consistent with Schmidt's (1974) study. However, the conditions that constitute an act of observation are poorly understood and are probably interwoven with the concept of psychological motivation. A psi source may devote minimal attention or motivation to a physical feedback event if the psi source is focused on a different outcome.

These questions can be investigated directly by examining where on the hierarchy of goals the usual assumptions for statistical analysis stop (or start) applying. Schmidt's (1974) study, combined with other majority-vote studies discussed in the next section, provide strong evidence that goal-oriented psi can operate on the level of groups of trials. These results are evidence that the goal of the psi source(s) was not the lowest level of the hierarchy, but the results do not indicate which of the higher levels was the goal - for example, the goal could have been the majority-vote outcome or the experimental outcome. As discussed previously (Kennedy, 1994), the lack of relationship between z score and sample size in meta-analyses of RNG and ganzfeld studies tentatively supports the hypothesis that goal-oriented psi widely applies to the experimental outcome as a whole. However, a variety of potentially confounding factors must be resolved before conclusions can be made about goal-oriented psi experimenter effects. A more in-depth evaluation and reporting of the expectations and motivations of experimenters and other research participants are also needed to answer these questions. Research investigating various levels of data aggregation, feedback, and psychological motivation should provide valuable evidence about the goal-oriented psi hypothesis.

Methods for investigating goal-oriented PSI

Journal of Parapsychology, The, March, 1995 by J.E. Kennedy

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