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Exploring the limits of science and beyond: research strategy and status

Journal of Parapsychology, The, March, 1994 by J.E. Kennedy

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How Can We Interpret Psi Experiments?

How can scientists meaningfully interpret experiments given the many possible explanations for the results? This issue frequently arises in parapsychology today. The answer is well established in principle, although the implementation of the principle is sometimes controversial.

The scientific method is based on accepting or favoring the simplest model or hypothesis consistent with the data and resorting to more complex models only when compelled to do so by additional data. This principle is often called the principle of parsimony or Occam's (or Ockham's) Razor. Of course, determining at what point data compel acceptance of a more complex model or hypothesis can sometimes be controversial.

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The principle of simplicity is interwoven with the principle of testable hypotheses. Karl Popper (1959), in his classic book on the scientific method, The Logic of Scientific Discovery, forcefully pointed out that falsifiable hypotheses are the foundation of the scientific method and distinguish science from metaphysics and pseudoscience. Simple models are more easily tested. Popper devoted a chapter to the issue of simplicity (Chapter 7) and specifically equated simplicity of hypothesis with degree of falsifiability. Jefferys and Berger (1992) recently provided a more quantitative discussion of the equivalent point that simple models have the fewest flexible "fudge factor" variables. These simple models make sharper, less adjustable predictions and therefore are more testable and scientifically justified than are more complex models.

The simplest hypothesis is the one that explains the existing data and can most easily be empirically tested. With more complex hypotheses, important variables are more difficult to control, and predictions for the outcome of empirical research are less specific. From this perspective, scientific progress moves along a path that encounters hypotheses that are increasingly difficult to investigate.

For efficient, systematic progress, science must exclude the vast number of untestable (i.e., complex) hypotheses that the human mind can readily imagine. Parapsychologists, for example, do not hypothesize that angels influence their experiments. Such hypotheses are less testable than viable alternative hypotheses and therefore are deferred or ignored.

The Principle of Simplicity in Parapsychology

The principle of simplicity has played a central role in parapsychology since the advent of research at the Duke Laboratory.

J. B. Rhine's early decision to defer investigation of survival of death is a classic example of the principle of simplicity in science. Following an emerging trend in psychical research, Rhine recognized (a) that psi from living persons was a viable alternative for any effects hypothesized as being due to spirits of the deceased, and (b) that hypotheses about living people are more testable (i.e., simple) than hypotheses about spirits. Therefore, he took the position that researchers must establish limits on psi from living persons before they can convincingly investigate survival (Mauskopf & McVaugh, 1980, pp. 96, 102, 103; Rhine, 1933).

Exploring the limits of science and beyond: research strategy and status

Journal of Parapsychology, The, March, 1994 by J.E. Kennedy

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