Content provided in partnership with
Exploring the limits of science and beyond: research strategy and status
Journal of Parapsychology, The, March, 1994 by J.E. Kennedy
Conclusions
The key conclusions of this discussion are that:
1. Numerous hypotheses can explain the results of psi experiments. These range from psi by the subject to divine intervention.
2. The scientific method is based on accepting the simplest (most testable) hypothesis consistent with available data and moving to more complex hypotheses only when the data compel it.
3. The field of parapsychology has generally adhered to this principle of simplicity.
4. The hypothesis of goal-oriented psi experimenter effects, which views an entire experiment as one random event with the a priori probability of success (significant outcome of the experiment) equal to .05, appears to be at the outer limit of testable hypotheses at present. Parapsychological research will change greatly if this hypothesis is verified.
- Most Popular Articles in Reference
- The importance of understanding organizational culture
- Credit card attitudes and behaviors of college students
- What factors attract foreign direct investment?
- Libraries Need Relationship Marketing - mutual interest marketing concept, ...
- How to set performance goals: employee reviews are more than annual critiques
- More »
5. In meta-analyses of RNG and ganzfeld studies, the relationship between statistical significance and sample size was consistent with the goal-oriented experimenter-effects hypothesis and was significantly different from the traditional assumptions for experiments. The results of majority-vote studies were also consistent with the goal-oriented psi hypothesis and differed significantly from the normal assumptions for using communication theory methods to enhance psi accuracy. Further research is needed with both meta-analyses and majority-vote studies.
6. Concepts and experiences that are outside the domain of scientifically testable hypotheses can have beneficial effects on peoples' health and well-being.
7. Scientists and skeptics should be careful not to claim that beliefs are false when actually the beliefs are untestable.
8. Researchers can and should investigate the effect on peoples' lives of anomalous experiences and belief systems even when the underlying reality of the experiences or beliefs cannot be scientifically tested.
1 The purposes of the present paper can be achieved without dealing with the controversial question of whether PK effects are produced by a force-like influence on the random process or by a precognitive mechanism of selecting a time with favorable random fluctuations of the random process (May et al., 1985; Rhine & Pratt, 1957, pp. 57-58; Walker, 1987). In the present paper, the term PK is used for either case, whether applied to influences of individual trials or to broader experimenter effects.
2 The relative degree of complexity and testability for some items in Figure 1 can be questioned. For example, I am not certain that the spirit guide hypothesis is more difficult to test than the future observers hypothesis. Fortunately, the main conclusions of this discussion are based on general principles, not the details of the table, and particularly not the right half of the table.
3 One factor that particularly needs clarification is how the simulated data were generated. In addition to the 332 published values, 95 simulated nonsignificant z- and sample-size values were included in the analysis to correct for the estimated selective reporting of significant results, and 30 of the 332 z and sample-size values were simulated for nonsignificant studies that did not report the numbers. Simulated data in particular have the potential to bias the results toward one model or the other. Also, some z scores applied to subdivisions of the experiments rather than to the overall score, which reflects the fact that the analysis was not specifically optimized to investigate goal-oriented experimenter effects because May et al. were primarily interested in another hypothesis.
Find Research Guides for:
Find Featured Titles for: Home & Garden
Most Popular Articles in Reference
- The importance of understanding organizational culture
- Credit card attitudes and behaviors of college students
- What factors attract foreign direct investment?
- Libraries Need Relationship Marketing - mutual interest marketing concept, ...
- How to set performance goals: employee reviews are more than annual critiques
- More »