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Why is PSI so elusive? A review and proposed model

Journal of Parapsychology, The, Sept, 2001 by J.E. Kennedy

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Opposing Arguments

The position that psi results are due to unknown methodological problems is a personal opinion that can be neither proved nor disproved, and therefore is not within the realm of science.

Parapsychological research is cumulative in the sense that it does incorporate previous research findings. Meta-analyses include all studies, old and new (see Radin, 1997). Early research is still examined for useful insights into psi (e.g., Honorton, 1975; Nash, 1989). Previous findings are incorporated in new research. For example, ganzfeld studies often collect data on classic moderating variables such as belief in ESP and the personality dimension extroversion. These factors have been found to be significant predictors of ganzfeld ESP performance (Bem & Honorton, 1994; Broughton, Kanthamani, & Khilji, 1990).

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Many of the experimental findings that skeptics interpret as evidence for methodological problems may actually reveal important characteristics of psi. In his criticism of ganzfeld research, Hyman (1994) admitted that some of the results uncovered by his analysis may possibly reflect characteristics of psi rather than methodological artifacts. This situation is an indication that the gap between knowledgeable skeptics and parapsychologists is narrowing. Slow but steady progress is being made in sorting out the many interacting factors.

The meta-analysis evidence that z scores are not related to sample sizes needs further verification and may reflect characteristics of psi operation. As discussed later for Hypothesis 5, these findings have been proposed to be part of the evidence for goal-oriented experimenter effects (Kennedy, 1994, 1995).

Conclusion

The hypothesis that psi effects are due to unknown methodological flaws brings into focus the importance of understanding the elusive nature of psi. In the absence of a coherent explanation for the elusive nature of psi, the majority of scientists will almost certainly continue to believe that methodological flaws are the most likely explanation. As long as psi remains elusive and is conceptualized as an unexplained anomaly, neither side will have convincing arguments.

Parapsychological research is more cumulative than the skeptics admit, but at the same time, the field has not provided alternative explanations for the problematic properties of the experimental results. Given the cumulative research findings and the scientific problem that the hypothesis of unknown methodological flaws is impossible to prove false, the overall scientific evidence favors the hypothesis that the elusive nature of psi is largely caused by factors other than methodological flaws.

HYPOTHESIS 2. FEW PEOPLE HAVE PSI ABILITY

Psi may be an ability that is very rare.

Supporting Arguments

Both spontaneous case studies and laboratory research suggest that only a minority of people have consistent, noticeable psi. Only about 1% of the volunteers who were screened for remote viewing ability were consistently successful (Utts, 1996). Broughton (1991, p. 10) noted that although surveys find that over half of the population report having had a psi experience, closer examination of the cases suggests that only 10% to 15% of the population have had experiences that appear to be possible psi. This estimate is consistent with early surveys (J. B. Rhine, 1934/1973, p. 17) and with later studies (Haight, 1979; Schmiedler, 1964). Given the well-established fact that relatively few psi experimenters consistently obtain significant results, combined with the evidence for psi-mediated experimenter effects (Kennedy & Taddonio, 1976; Palmer, 1997; White, 1976a, 1976b), Millar (1979) concluded that psi studies with unselected participants generally reflect psi by special experimenters.

Why is PSI so elusive? A review and proposed model

Journal of Parapsychology, The, Sept, 2001 by J.E. Kennedy

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