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The capricious, actively evasive, unsustainable nature of psi: a summary and hypotheses

Journal of Parapsychology, The, Spring, 2003 by J.E. Kennedy

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Bierman (1981) pointed out that the shift between psi hitting and psi missing is not just low reliability, but negative reliability. He noted that the direction of scoring frequently reverses from pilot to confirmation, which is negative reliability. He also commented on several studies he carried out and other studies in the literature that showed unexpected reversals of scaring when the data for one study were divided into two groups. This division of data is essentially the same as a split-half method to estimate reliability.

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These unintended, undesired, significant reversals in direction are an unusual form of unreliability that seem evasive and almost defiant. The normal manifestation of unreliability is results that are sometimes significant and sometimes nonsignificant (i.e., reliability approaching zero rather than being negative).

SHIFT FROM INTENDED EFFECTS TO UNINTENDED SECONDARY EFFECTS

Another seemingly capricious or defiant psi manifestation is when the overall intended effect becomes nonsignificant, but unintended secondary effects provide evidence for psi. The Princeton Engineering Anomalies Research (PEAR) laboratory provides a recent example. Studies with electronic random event generators (REGs) had small but significant effects for a decade. A recent large-scale replication effort obtained nonsignificant results overall, but Jahn et al. (2000) reported internal structural effects that appeared to indicate psi. The analyses for these effects were based on findings in the previous data, and the effects were reported as significant after adjusting for multiple analyses. However, the effects had different patterns than the earlier results and were not consistent across the three laboratories participating in the project.

Jahn and Dunne (2001) summarized the situation as follows: "At the end of the day, we are confronted with an archive of irregular, irrational, yet indismissable data that testifies, almost impishly, to our enduring lack of comprehension of the basic nature of these phenomena" (p. 300). They noted that these changes in psi manifestations are not consciously intended or desired by those conducting the studies, and suggested that unconscious processes may have a major role in psi effects and the associated inconsistencies.

The evolution of research at the Princeton laboratory is notably similar to the earlier experience at the Duke laboratory. At Duke the initial research was remarkably successful in demonstrating the intended effects. However, a decade later, unintended, internal effects were increasingly being reported as the primary finding. J. B. Rhine (1946a) commented:

[M]any of the experiments yielding only chance totals have proved to be fruitful in other respects. Analyses of different character than those initially applied have in some cases revealed hidden relationships that were first overlooked. Some of the most important discoveries concerning PK, like those concerning ESP, have emerged in this way. (p. 73)

The capricious, actively evasive, unsustainable nature of psi: a summary and hypotheses

Journal of Parapsychology, The, Spring, 2003 by J.E. Kennedy

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