The Shifting Boundaries of Democratic Governments

TABLE 5. DEMOCRACIES AND NONDEMOCRACIES CIRCA 1994-19971

                                       Total
Fully democratic
         Older democracies             22
         Newer democracies             20

                 Total                 42

Mainly democratic                      5
Less democratic                        23

                 Total                 28

Democratic island microstates(2)       106

         Democratic countries, total   86
         Nondemocratic countries       106

                 Total countries       192

(1) Based on Polity III (1194) and Freedom House Scales (1996-97).

(2) Pacific and Caribbean islands with populations less than 500 thousand. They range from Tuvulu (population 10 thousand) to the Solomon Islands (population 427 thousand), with a median population of 118 thousand.

To be sure, because the number of countries has also multiplied, the global expansion of democracy might just have kept pace with the increase in countries. If that were the case, it would still be an interesting and important development. However the percentage of the countries in the world with democratic governments has also increased, together with the proportion of the world's population now living under democratic regimes (Tables 6). Taken all in all, then, we can reasonably conclude that a far greater number of people now possess opportunities to exercise a significant degree of collective control over the decisions of their government than ever before in human history.(7)

TABLE 6. DEMOCRACIES AND NON DEMOCRACIES: POPULATION, 1997

                               Pop. (000)   % of world
                               1988
Fully democratic:

        Older democracies      13,091,988         22.6

        Newer democracies
           Most democratic        325,079          5.6
           Mainly democratic       63,258          1.1
           Least democratic     1,614,312         28.0
           Microstates              2,170         0.04

        Total newer             2,004,819         32.0
        Total democratic        3,314,017         57.4

Nondemocratic
 China                          1,221,592         21.2

Rest of the world               1,235,391         21.4

Total, democratic and
        nondemocratic           5,771,000        100.0

Source: U. S. Statistical Abstract 1997.

Has the global expansion of democracy pretty much reached its limits? I do not think we can answer this question with great confidence. But a conjectural answer can be informed by a response to a further question: How can we account for the global expansion of democracy? If democratic governments have spread to more countries, have not collapsed, and so have remained pretty much in place, then it follows that previous conditions unfavorable to the emergence and maintenance of democratic institutions must have been displaced to a significant extent by more favorable conditions. Let me suggest a half dozen changes in conditions that help to explain the global expansion of democracy.