Climate change and sustainability in the Indian context - The Churches and Climate Change

India is one of the world's oldest civilizations. It has a rich cultural past and a long colonial history. During the process of colonization, its economically self-sufficient livelihood systems were severely threatened.

Today, India has two faces. On the one side, it is a nation perceived to be on the brink of a breakthrough in economic development. It is considered one of the most politically powerful nations because of its economic potential. On the other side, India remains one of the world's poorest countries, with a large part of its population -- more than 40 percent according to a recent survey -- living below the poverty line and struggling for survival.

The issue of climate change has to be situated in this context. It is thus from the point of view of the majority of the Indian population, who are being increasingly marginalized today, that this paper attempts to highlight the impacts, issues and dimensions of climate change and what they imply for sustainability in the Indian context. Based on the experiences of work with indigenous communities in the east of India, it represents collective thinking represented in papers, reports and presentations at workshops in various parts of India.(1)

There are several reasons why the issue of climate change has not had a high priority in the Indian context. It is perceived as a problem of remote consequence from the perspective of the common people, who are engaged in more impending struggles for survival and for whom present conditions are so intolerable that the future assumes little importance. In addition, "climate change" at the local level -- sudden variations in the monsoon months, frequent floods and droughts -- has always been experienced and dealt with by Indian farmers. From the point of view of policy-makers, climate change is understood as a Northem problem. Since the Northern countries have largely created the problem of climate change, it is felt that it is up to them to work out solutions for it. Moreover, for a country like India to respond to climate change mitigation strategies would involve compromising the development of the economy.

Impacts of climate change in India

While predictions have been made on the possible impacts of climate change in the Indian context, these are still preliminary research findings and only indicate possible trends. Major uncertainties remain about the precise magnitude of its effects.

1. Agriculture. According to a study sponsored by the Asian Development Bank, India's geographical location makes it particularly vulnerable to the impact of global warming. An analysis of various climate change scenarios reveals that crop yields in India could be adversely affected by changes in temperature and concentrations of carbon dioxide. The effects will be felt differently in different regions.

These studies indicate that wheat yields would be greatly reduced by increasing temperatures, an expected consequence of global increase in carbon dioxide emissions. Rice yields in coastal areas, where the productivity is low, will not be affected, but yields in the more productive regions of Haryana and Punjab are likely to decline.

Such an adverse impact on agriculture will be alarming in the Indian context, and a World Health Organization report clearly states that malnutrition would increase due to the effects of climate change on food production systems.

2. Coastal regions. The most exhaustively studied impact of climate change is on India's coastal regions. It is expected that a rise in global temperatures will bring a rise in sea levels, with adverse impact. The observed trends in the mean sea level along the Indian coast indicate a rising of about one centimetre per decade, which is close to that noticed in other parts of the globe. The projected future sea level rise could inundate low-lying areas, coastal marshes and wetlands, erode beaches and increase flooding and salinity of rivers, bays and aquifers.

The total length of the Indian mainland coastline from the Sunderbans in West Bengal to the Rann of Kutch in Gujarat is 5700 km. If the Lakshwadeep-Minicoy and Andamans-Nicobar groups of islands are included, the figure is 7510 km. The coastal areas most under threat include the entire coast and the low-lying regions of Lakshwadeep-Minicoy and Andamans-Nicobar. There is a possibility that the lowlands in the Bengal-Orissa tract and the Gujarat Rann areas would he submerged due to expansion of the oceans and melting of glaciers, resulting in encroachment of sea on lands. Large areas of cropland and mangroves, unique to this region, could be inundated. Apart from causing damage to the coastal infrastructure, this would result in the loss of fresh-water supplies due to the invasion of sea water. More than seven million people are at risk, and the impacts of sea level rise could cost as much as approximately 1850 million rupees.

India has a high coastal population density in the states of Kerala, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. The intensity of use of these coastal areas is growing under current developmental trends and in view of the high value of tourism in these lands. Sea level rise and the encroachment of the sea on inhabited lands would force the migration of populations inland, with consequent human suffering, besides having an impact on the living and non-organic resources of coastal zones.