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Empires in the dust

Discover, March, 1998 by Karen Wright

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"But it seems on the basis of the paleodimatic data that there is no doubt about the event at 2200 B.C. says Weiss. "What the qualities of this event were, and what the magnitude of this event was, that is the current research frontier now."

Trouble is, even though the drought may seem like a sure thing, its effects on Mesopotamia are still unproved, as Zettler points out. They will remain controversial, Weiss admits, until archeologists better understand the contributions of politics, agriculture, and climate in the formation of ancient societies. That mission grows more urgent as more archeologists seem ready to grapple with models of "climatic determinism." In the past few years, drought and flooding have been cited in the demise of several New World civilizations, including the Maya of Central America, the Anasazi of the American Southwest, and the Moche and Tiwanaku of Peru and Bolivia.

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"Until climatic conditions are quantified, it's going to be very difficult to understand what the effects of climate changes--particularly controversial, abrupt ones--were upon these societies," says Weiss. The precise constellation of forces that led to the collapse of Bronze Age cultures around 2200 B.C. will probably be debated for a very long time. But paleoclimatology has assured Mother Nature a place in that constellation. And the notion that civilizations are immune to natural disaster may soon be ancient history.

Empires in the dust

Discover, March, 1998 by Karen Wright

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