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Balkan horrors
National Review, June 22, 1992
THE BALKAN tragedy has reached a new stage. The Serbian military assault on Bosnia continues, in the form of a blockade and artillery shelling of its capital, Sarajevo; the historic Croatian city of Dubrovnik continues under bombardment. On May 30, the UN Security Council passed an extraordinary resolution mandating the severest economic sanctions against Serbia; it prohibits all trade, including air traffic and the supply of oil, and freezes all overseas assets. These measures are necessary, but no one should suppose they are sufficient to halt the Serbian drive. What next?
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It is essential, first of all, to urge calm on those of our fellow citizens--and they are a strange collection of bedfellows, Right and Left--who seem bent on involving NATO or the United States in direct military action. It is far from self-evident that such a drastic commitment is warranted either by the facts of the situation or by the American national interest. The breathless calls for armed intervention are most amusing when they come from liberals (Leslie Gelb of the New York Times comes to mind) who are, at all other times, in the vanguard of those demanding reductions in our military capability.
Second, the focus of American policy must be to shore up the European system--the relationship among the major powers--so that it can withstand the shocks of this kind of ethnic turbulence in the ex-Communist East. This may be the best thing we can do in a region that is a hornet's nest of multiple hatreds and re-emerging ancient grievances. It would not be a minor accomplishment, either. Unlike the situation in 1914, the major powers in Europe (the United States, Russia, Germany, Britain, France), while they have differing perceptions, are not in the business of aligning themselves against one another over the Yugoslav issue; they have more important business to conduct with one another. This is the ultimate safeguard against the Yugoslav crisis spilling over into a more significant European conflagration. We must keep it that way.
Third, however, the dangers of this crisis are sufficient to warrant more than benign neglect. The centrifugal forces could spread to other countries in Eastern Europe, and the Macedonian problem has the potential to engage our ally Turkey. (Keep your eye on Turkey in all of this; its pivotal role in the Near East does constitute a significant Western strategic interest, even if Yugoslavia itself does not.) Thus, even in the midst of a presidential election campaign, the United States must involve itself with its allies to fashion a coherent policy.
Fourth, we are paying the price for six months of a quite misguided policy. The Administration held far too long to the fiction of a united Yugoslavia. To this day, we cling to the absurd policy of an arms embargo against all parties--which reinforces the Yugoslav Army's military superiority and almost guarantees the continuation of its aggression. As NR has suggested before, unless a balance of forces is restored, all mediation efforts are a pathetic waste of time. This means, as soon as possible, enabling the republics resisting Serbian aggression to arm and defend themselves, if it is not too late. A year ago, in the Persian Gulf, we all understood that economic sanctions alone never work; we should not forget this truism now.
Fifth, there is a useful lesson to be drawn about the perpetual problem of European tribalism, and not only in Eastern and Central Europe. The EC's mediating efforts were doomed by the divisions among its members as well as by the inadequacies of its mediator, Lord Carrington. More broadly, the lesson is that without a strong and permanent American political and military presence in Europe, our sophisticated European friends are quite capable of sending the whole Continent up in flames yet again.
COPYRIGHT 1992 National Review, Inc.
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