Clinton at War - NATO-Yugoslavia Conflict

Until Milosevic and the Serbs. The Serbs are not the rugged Partisans of 50 years ago. Milosevic's soldiers have been most effective against unarmed villagers and lightly armed militias, such as the Croatians and Bosnian Moslems at the beginning of the Bosnian conflict. They are best at raping and pillaging, and they seem to need pre-battle infusions of drugs to accomplish even that. But Milosevic is betting the house on his war policy, and he is calling on old hatreds and insecurities to animate his people; it will take force to stop him.

What in Bill Clinton's arsenal of responses prepares him to know this? Clinton habitually relies on three tools in dealing with others. The first is genial empathy. Early in his first term, Human Events threw a big party and hired a Clinton impersonator to work the tables. I was sitting with Bill Kristol, and when "Clinton" showed up, he said that, yes, there had been hard words over health care, but (smiling) he respected Kristol for all that. What made the bit hilarious was not just that the impersonator looked and sounded like Clinton, but that the warm greeting was exactly the kind of thing Clinton would do. All right, he wouldn't go to a Human Events party. But if he found himself in an elevator full of Clinton-haters, every one of them would think better of him by the time they all reached the lobby floor.

Clinton's second tool is polls. If you take your cues for what to think from other people, then you have to find out what they think. Dick Morris was merely his instrument, not his Svengali. Clinton polls to find issues (tobacco). He polls to find non-issues (school uniforms). He probably got Buddy because polls showed that Socks wasn't cutting it. Poll data are different from the ward heeler's feel for his constituents, or from knowledge of human nature. But in times of peace and prosperity they can accomplish wonders of fine-tuning.

Clinton's third tool is lying. Unlike some politicians-Jefferson, for instance-Clinton does not tell occasional lies to separate the unpleasant aspects of his personality (in Jefferson's case, cunning and will-to-power) from the admirable ones (idealism and intelligence). Clinton has no personality to speak of, so his lying is all-pervasive. All that matters is this moment, this turn in the road. Lying about past statements and deeds is the quickest way to adjust his course. It leaves a spotty trail behind, like leaking antifreeze. But so long as all he had to lie about was campaign promises, or testimony in civil suits, his lies were not serious.

How will these techniques help him now? Milosevic needs conflict and killing to stay in power; charm won't make any impression there. Whom can Clinton poll? Serbia is a dictatorship, and the Kosovars don't have time for focus groups. Lying can accomplish much in wartime, but-like air power-it has to be backed up.

The president Bill Clinton turns out to resemble most is Lyndon Johnson-domestically oriented, politically skilled, little burdened with scruples or sanity. The man who began his career protesting Johnson's war will end it fighting his own.

COPYRIGHT 1999 National Review, Inc.
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