Bush by the Numbers: How does he stand, and what's he doing? - Poll - President Bush's approval ratings are around 50%, although he is expected to get a boost from the tax rebate checks, an idea that was not his

It's an article of faith inside the White House these days that George W. Bush will receive a big boost in political capital in the next few weeks, when millions of tax rebate checks begin arriving in mailboxes across the country. "When people start realizing they have an extra $300 or $600 as a down payment on real tax relief, that's when he starts getting the credit," says one White House aide. Another predicts: "People will open the mail and say, 'Holy cow, he really did do something.'"

Never mind that the rebates weren't the president's idea; that, in fact, the White House initially pooh-poohed them as a Democratic gimmick. Bush's staffers are putting so much faith in the check-in-the- mail scenario because so far the president has received little political benefit from fulfilling his number-one campaign promise- coming through with a tax cut that was bigger than even some supporters thought possible, more quickly than many thought possible. If the rebate checks do the trick, great.

But for now at least, Bush's job-approval ratings are wandering listlessly around 50 percent (although one poll showed a slight improvement at the time of writing). The numbers have led some Republicans to worry; the president hasn't moved much beyond the 48 percent he won last November. "There's good reason to worry," says pollster John Zogby, who keeps a regular eye on Bush's fortunes. "We're in the twilight zone between the honeymoon and the election of 2002, and he's not in the position he should be."

Indeed, a look at the unpublished demographic breakdown of a recent Zogby poll shows Bush having trouble earning a strong majority of support from several important electoral groups. With independent voters, he's at 48 percent approval. With Catholics, he's at 51 percent. And-woefully for this president-with married voters, he's at about 55 percent. "The 55 signifies to me just how little he's grown," says Zogby. "This is a group he did well with during the election and one he's supposed to be representing. This is the kind of group that will help him build a majority, and he's nowhere with them." On top of that, Bush's job disapproval rating is in the mid 30s, about ten points higher than when he began his presidency.

There's not much argument about what's responsible for the drop: energy, environment, and economy. Even some Bush aides concede that the president's energy campaign, while based on some good ideas, was a flop with the public. First the White House, playing off power woes in California, pushed the idea that the country was in crisis-"the most serious energy shortage since the oil embargoes of the 1970s," according to the vice president's energy report. Then, before any of the Bush policies could be enacted, things started to get better. The price of gasoline went down, along with the price of natural gas and the price of electricity in California. Not much of a crisis-but a real waste of political credibility.

Combine that with the Democrats' high-profile effectiveness in using the environmental issue, from arsenic to offshore drilling, against the White House; opponents have often left Bush looking defensive. And finally, there's the public's up-and-down concern about the economy. Zogby found that just 33 percent of respondents who are pessimistic about their personal finances gave Bush a high job-approval rating. (So far, however, many more people remain optimistic about their personal finances; Bush is at 55 with them.)

No one would argue that the numbers are good news for Bush. But the president's less poll-obsessed allies respond this way: The next presidential election is more than three years away, and nobody knows what will happen between now and then. So why worry about polls?

Answer: Because polls do more than just predict (sometimes badly) the results of elections. The president's job-approval ratings have a here- and-now effect on his ability to push his agenda through Congress and in the national media. To Democrats on Capitol Hill, Bush's anemic polls mean one thing: opportunity. "The numbers?" says one Democratic strategist. "They tell Tom Daschle to push full steam ahead on the Patients' Bill of Rights and make Bush veto it. They tell Dick Gephardt to push full steam ahead on a discharge petition and a vote on campaign-finance reform and make the president veto it. They tell Democrats to push full steam ahead on the environment."

They've certainly gotten the message. But Bush's ratings affect more than just Democrats. "It's hard to imagine [the Democrats] being more aggressive-they've been so aggressive from the outset," says Ed Gillespie, a Republican consultant with close White House ties. "But [the poll numbers] do have an effect on some of our shakier Republicans in hanging in against the Democrats." And the numbers mean that George W. Bush has a little less power to stiffen Republican spines.

In addition, Bush's poll standing is forcing him to pay more attention to salesmanship. "I think it requires a greater emphasis on message and a much more hands-on approach," says Gillespie, citing Bush's July 11 morale-building trip to Capitol Hill as Exhibit A of a new White House determination to sell its product. "This administration is not poll- driven, but that's not to say they're not conscious of polls. . . . When you're promoting your policies, you have to be conscious of where the polls are."