His Veep's Keeper: What Bill can do for Gore - and to - Brief Article

Will October prove harmful to W. and other living things? Historically, a lame-duck president can wield great leverage over a presidential contest in his fading months in office if he chooses to do so. Eisenhower jumped into Nixon's 1960 campaign, creating a surge that left his vice president within a statistical-margin-of-fraud tie for the presidency. What will Bill Clinton do to help Al Gore in October?

He faces a basic choice: Will he act as campaigner-in-chief or behave in a soberly presidential manner in the last, crucial weeks? Will he barnstorm for his anointed successor or instead focus on adding to his record as president and bolstering his approval ratings?

In 1994, he made the wrong choice, campaigning for his fellow Democrats and driving them into oblivion. Clinton's low ratings in September and part of October forced him to the sidelines as his supporters fought for their political lives against insurgent Republicans ably commanded by Newt Gingrich. Then, toward the end of October, Clinton turned around his image by flying to the Middle East and presiding over an Arab-Israeli agreement. The signing ceremony in the desert made him look particularly presidential. His approval rating jumped ten points virtually overnight.

On his return, one week before the election, he called me and asked which states I thought he should visit to boost the fortunes of his congressional Democrats. "Go back to the Middle East," I counseled. But Clinton countered: "Before, I had low ratings and couldn't campaign for them without hurting them. But my ratings are ten points higher now, so I can help them."

"You'll help them in the short term," I answered, "but you'll lose the presidential image you developed in the Middle East, your ratings will drop, and you will end up hurting them."

"I have to go campaign for them. They risked their lives for me. It's the least I can do," he concluded as we hung up.

As Clinton toured the '94 battlegrounds, his approval ratings dropped day after day until they had returned to their historic lows of earlier that autumn. As the image of the peacemaker president faded and the partisan president took center stage, Clinton hurt himself-and his intended beneficiaries-with his every campaign stop. History records that Democrats looked pretty good before Clinton started his last-minute push at the end of that election. On Election Day, they were wiped out.

Will Clinton make the same mistake twice? He rarely does. While the man has few, if any, political instincts, he learns from his mistakes better than anybody else in politics. Since he has made just about every mistake there is to make in the course of his checkered career, he is now the functional equivalent of a political genius.

In October, Clinton will know that he should be burnishing his image, not for history, as many will assume, but for Gore. He will know that he should focus on foreign policy, the one area where quick triumphs are possible. Look for his immense charm to work wonders in the Middle East, Northern Ireland, North Korea, or Russia. Expect high-profile foreign visits where his ability to promote the cause of peace will be on display. President Clinton will remember how Clinton-as-politician undermined the Democrats' '94 campaign.

He will also realize that he must remain beneath the radar so as not to take the limelight away from Hillary. As Election Day approaches, Mrs. Clinton will be trying desperately to shed both her maiden name (because it is too feminist) and her married name (because it reminds people of him). She'll run as just Hillary, trusting that nobody will ask "Hillary who?" The last thing she will need is for her husband to be visible, out there campaigning and beating the Bushes.

So Bill Clinton will do the smart thing and remain above the fray, presidential to the end. Right?

Wrong. He won't be able to help himself. This man craves crowds more than he does sex. He needs the approval of the masses like an alcoholic needs a drink. Without the energy of the mob, he feels depleted, apathetic, listless. Entropy sets in, and he falls into a black hole of cranky depression. He needs the cheers. He won't be able to resist one last all-nighter touring cities, hearing the applause, bathing in adulation. The prospect of feeling that energizing fatigue again and bathing in sweat as he presses the flesh will be too appealing for him to resist.

In September, he'll remain aloof. In October, he'll pull off presidential achievements to build his image. His ratings will rise and his legacy will shine. Gore and Hillary will profit from his rise. He'll be on top of his game.

Then he'll blow it all in a massive act of self-indulgence. He'll pretend it is because the attacks on his record are too much to bear. But, really, it will be the silence in the White House at night that will drive him crazy. The quiet walls and the empty halls will force him out of doors into the streets, the rallies, the mobs, the media, the limelight. There he will bask, narcissistic to the end as his ratings fall, his image becomes again too political, and his vice president and First Lady find the wind in their faces and not at their backs once more.