Life in a Plan B economy

BUILDING A NEW ECONOMY is paramount, one that can sustain economic progress and involves phasing out old industries, restructuring existing ones, and creating new ones. This new economy will be powered by renewable sources of energy, have a more diverse transport system--relying more on rail, buses, and bicycles, and less on cars--and will recycle everything. For instance, coal use will be phased out, replaced by efficiency gains in many countries, but also by natural gas, as in the United Kingdom, and by wind power, as in Denmark and Germany.

The world automobile industry will face restructuring as it shifts from the gasoline-powered internal combustion engine to the gas-electric hybrid, the diesel-electric hybrid, plug-in hybrids, or high-efficiency diesel. This will require a retooling of engine plants and the retraining of automotive engineers and mechanics.

The new economy will bring with it major new industries, ones that either do not yet exist or are just beginning. Wind electricity generation is one, incorporating three subsidiary industries: turbine manufacturing, installation, and maintenance. Now in its embryonic stage, this promises to become the foundation of the new energy economy. Millions of turbines soon will be converting wind into inexpensive electricity, becoming part of the landscape, generating income and jobs in rural communities throughout the world.

As wind power emerges as a mainstream low-cost source of electricity, it will spawn another industry--hydrogen production. Once wind turbines are in wide use, there will be a large, unused capacity during the night when electricity use drops. With this essentially free electricity, turbine owners can turn on the hydrogen generators, converting the wind power into hydrogen. This then can be used to run power plants now fueled with natural gas. The wind turbine will replace the coal mine, oil well, and gas field.

Among the many changes in the world food economy will be the continuing shift to fish farming. Aquaculture, the fastest growing subsector of the world food economy, has expanded at nine percent a year since 1990. The farming of fish, particularly omnivorous species such as carp, catfish, and tilapia, is likely to continue expanding rapidly simply because these fish convert grain into animal protein so efficiently. With this aquacultural growth comes the need for a rapidly expanding aquafeed industry, one where feeds are formulated by fish nutritionists, much as they are for today's poultry industry.

Bicycle manufacturing and servicing is a booming industry. As recently as 1965, world production of cars and bikes essentially was the same, with each at nearly 20,000,000, but bike production has climbed to well over 100,000,000 per year compared with around 42,000,000 cars. This increase in bike sales reflects growth in the ranks of those reaching the bicycle level of affluence, principally in Asia. Among industrial countries, the urban transport model being pioneered in the Netherlands and Denmark gives a sense of the bicycle's future role worldwide. As bicycle use expands, interest in battery-assisted bikes also will spike. Similar to existing bicycles, except for a tiny battery-run electric motor that either can power the bicycle entirely or partially, its sales are expected to continue climbing.

Meanwhile, just as the last half-century was devoted to raising land productivity, this half-century will be focused on raising water productivity. Irrigation technologies will become more efficient. The continuous recycling of urban water supplies, already started in some cities, will become common, replacing the "flush and forget" system.

Other promising growth industries are solar cell manufacturing, light rail construction, and tree planting. For the 1,700,000,000 people living in developing countries and villages that lack electricity, the mass production of solar cells is the best bet for electrification. As people tire of traffic congestion and pollution, cities throughout the world are restricting car use and turning to light rail to provide mobility. As efforts to reforest the Earth gain momentum, tree planting will emerge as a leading economic activity.

Restructuring the global economy not only will create new industries, but new jobs--indeed, entire new professions and specialties within professions. Turning to wind in a big way will require thousands of wind meteorologists to analyze potential wind sites, identifying the best ones for wind farms. Their role in the new economy will be comparable to that of petroleum geologists in the old one.

There is a heightened demand for environmental architects who can de sign buildings that are energy- and materials-efficient and that maximize natural heating, cooling, and lighting. In a future of water scarcity, watershed hydrologists will be needed to study the local hydrological cycle, including the movement of underground water, and to determine the sustainable yield of aquifers. They will be at the center of watershed management regimes.