Study shows juries often get it wrong

Juries across the country make decisions every day on the fate of defendants, ideally leading to prison sentences that fit the crime for the guilty and release for the innocent. Yet, a study from Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill., shows that juries, as a whole, are getting it wrong. In a set of 271 cases from four areas, juries gave wrong verdicts in at least one out of eight cases, according to statistician Bruce Spencer.

"Contrary to popular belief, this study strongly suggests that DNA or other after-the-fact evidence is not the only way to know how often jury verdicts are corrects," claims Spencer, professor of statistics and faculty fellow at the Institute for Policy Research. "Based on findings from a limited sample, I am optimistic that larger, carefully designed statistical studies would have much to tell us about the accuracy of jury verdicts;'

Such studies might lead to better understanding of the prevalence of incorrect verdicts--false convictions and false acquittals. Spencer notes, "As a society, can we be satisfied if 10% of convictions are incorrect? Can we be satisfied knowing that innocent people go to jail for many years for wrongful convictions?"

He envisions that statistical studies would complement nationwide efforts to expose wrongful convictions, including the work of the Center on Wrongful Convictions at Northwestern University School of Law. The Center's work in exposing flaws in Illinois' capital punishment system played a significant role in former Gov. George Ryan's decision to commute Illinois death row inmates' pending executions to sentences of life in prison.

While the studies on verdict accuracy will not tell whether the verdict for a particular case is correct or not, they will help assess what proportion of verdicts is correct. "If you were on trial and not guilty, you certainly would want the jury to do the right thing," Spencer concludes. "Now, subject to these assumptions, studies could be employed to give us an idea of how often that happens."

COPYRIGHT 2007 Society for the Advancement of Education
COPYRIGHT 2008 Gale, Cengage Learning