After "Black Friday" comes "CyberMonday"

With gas prices moderating and three in four homes nationwide connected to the Internet, in-store and online holiday sales will ring up significant increases this year, predicts retail specialist Richard Feinberg of the Institute and Center for Customer-Driven Quality at Purdue University, West Lafayette, Ind. "The outlook is very positive for retailers this holiday shopping season, but that is especially true for e-holiday retailing," he says. "Online sales will increase at least 20% this year compared to last year."

Feinberg maintains that online sales will grow from $20,000,000,000 in 2005 to $24,000,000,000 in 2006. Traditional retail holiday shopping nationwide is expected to reach $450,000,000,000 or better, or between four-six percent more than 2005. Feinberg thinks online shopping will constitute as much as eight percent of all holiday shopping, and free shipping will be a popular tool for retailers to attract as many customers as possible. "A recent national survey shows 70% of consumers indicate that free shipping is a deciding factor for them," he notes.

At retail outlets, merchandisers will lead with discounts and then offer other enticements to bring shoppers back again. "We will see many and varied promotions--for instance, a coupon for a greater discount if you come back another time, in addition to the point-of-sale discount," Feinberg states.

Gift cards, that standby for the person who just does not know what to buy, will account for 10% of holiday sales. Purchases using gift cards are not included in holiday sales until the cards are redeemed, and 60% are redeemed after Dec. 25. For that reason, counting of holiday sales does not end until well after the lights have been taken down.

With the growth of online sales, Feinberg points out that a new term has been added to the shopping lexicon: "CyberMonday" now joins "Black Friday," the traditional start of the holiday shopping season on the Friday after Thanksgiving. CyberMonday is the first day of the workweek following the extended Thanksgiving weekend. That is when shoppers' attention turns from turkey and stuffing to holiday gifts and stocking stuffers.

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