Will U.S. population reach one billion?

Sometime later this year, the 300 millionth American is projected to be born. If the current effort by Pres. George W. Bush and leaders of Congress to adopt a massive increase in immigration is successful, that 300 millionth individual could witness the arrival of the 500 millionth American about the time he or she turns 44 years old, says a report published by the Federation for American Immigration Reform, Washington, D.C. It reveals that immigration policy decisions that are made (or not made) in Congress this year could vary the size of the mid-century population of the U.S. by as many as 135,000,000 people.

"Projecting the U.S. Population to 2050," authored by FAIR's research director Jack Martin and statistician Stan Fogel, examines four population scenarios over the next 45 years, based on various immigration policy choices. Because of decades of high levels of immigration, even a policy of zero net immigration--where incoming immigrants balance those leaving or dying--still will result in an increase of 66,000,000 people, or about 22% growth, by 2050. On the other end of the scale, a de facto amnesty or guest worker program for the estimated 12,000,000 illegal aliens now living in the U.S., coupled with a legal immigration policy that allows them to reunify with family members now outside the country, will push U.S. population to the half-billion mark by mid century and to about 1,000,000,000 by the end of the 21st century.

"The incredible enormity of the consequences of the policies Congress is debating right now is not fully appreciated by them or by the American public," contends Dan Stein, president of FAIR. "While the political leadership of both parties is focused on what policies are going to win them the votes of ethnic blocs in the next election, or garner campaign contributions from business interests that want cheap labor, they have given no consideration to what their decisions will mean for the future of this nation.

"A difference of 135,000,000 people would affect every aspect of life for Americans of 2050. Congress' actions on immigration this year will determine whether we have endless urban sprawl or a healthy environment at mid century. It will affect access to, and the cost of, vital resources like water and energy. The size and make-up of the immigration flow will be a determining factor in whether America remains a nation with a solid middle class, or increasingly becomes a nation of haves and have-nots like much of the rest of the world.

"Every politician, and certainly every president, worries about how history will remember them," concludes Stein. "This Administration and this Congress will either be remembered as the people who sent the nation hurtling down the path to catastrophic overpopulation, or the leaders who looked beyond the next election cycle and set the nation on a course of sustainable growth, with a vibrant and productive middle class."

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