America's innovative edge at risk

The global landscape for science and technology is changing, with increased competition for resources and recognition. That is beginning to look like bad news for the innovative edge the U.S. long has enjoyed. "Will the United States own the technology of the future? Probably not all of it, and only if we compete harder to maintain our current position," cautions Diana Hicks, professor and chair of the Georgia Institute of Technology's School of Public Policy, Atlanta.

Since many foreign governments have been strengthening their educational and research programs, the gap is closing between America and its overseas competitors, with Asian nations--China, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, and India--showing particular gains.

Hicks presents a number of bench-marks that raise concern for this country:

Larger talent pool. More Asians, especially the Chinese, earn doctoral degrees. At the same time, the number of U.S. citizens pursuing doctoral degrees has been decreasing. In addition, the amount of Asian students who study for doctoral degrees in the U.S. is dropping. That is disturbing because those students had helped make up for the dearth of U.S.-born students who enrolled in science and engineering. Foreign students often remain in the U.S. for research jobs, contributing to the nation's knowledge base.

Increased R&D spending. From 1995-2001, China, South Korea, and Taiwan increased gross research and development spending by about 140%, while the U.S. went up by 34%. Moreover, 68% of all domestic R&D funds in the U.S. now comes from the private sector. Nearly three-fourths of this money goes toward development instead of basic research (in which researchers try to gain greater knowledge of a subject without specific applications in mind).

Patent growth. Since 1988, the number of U.S. patent applications for innovations originating in Asia increased 789%, with South Korea evidencing especially strong gains. In contrast, U.S. patent applications for homegrown technology have grown at 116%.

Published papers. America's share of science and engineering papers published worldwide fell from 38% in 1988 to 31% in 2001, while European and Asian papers have been on the upswing. During 1988-2001, Asia's share of published papers grew from 11% to 17%.

When it comes to collaborating on papers for scientific journals, the U.S. traditionally has been the go-to country. Yet, Asian nations are beginning to collaborate more among themselves. This makes the United States appear slightly less important--another sign that our dominance is starting to decline;' Hicks asserts.

Granted, these benchmarks are relative, reflecting percentage growth rather than absolute numbers. However, in the late 1990s, the actual number of published papers from U.S. researchers also began to wane, which is startling, Hicks suggests. "The number of pages in the journals like Nature or Science can only grow so fast. If Asian and European nations increase their scientific capability faster, they crowd out some of our efforts, which reduces the perceived achievement of younger American scientists. Although U.S. researchers will work far harder than previous generations, they will not command the same dominating position in world science as did their predecessors.

"In contrast to natural disasters ... this is a slow-developing trend, and one that's hard to see from inside the United States. We're still a very competitive country, but it's important to look at the long-range implications of these benchmarks. Maintaining our leadership role in science and innovation is critical to economic strength and national security."

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