Northeast expecting severe winter

Long-range forecasters warn that the winter of 2005-06 will be an especially cold one for the northeastern U.S., a region that depends heavily on heating oil. An early start to the cold weather will create additional demand for oil.

AccuWeather, Inc., State College, Pa., forecasts that just about all of the U.S. east of the Mississippi River will average at least 1[degrees]F below normal over the three-month period of December through February. The greatest departure from typical winter temperatures will occur in the Northeast from Maine to Washington, D.C., with average temperatures 2-3[degrees] below normal in much of the region.

AccuWeather's long-range forecasters point to four major factors that could contribute to a colder-than-normal winter in the Northeast:

Unusually warm water off the Northeast Coast presages a cooler winter. A large area of warm water off the East Coast has persisted well into the fall, favoring the creation of a high pressure system over land and low pressure offshore. Winds that move from areas of high pressure to those of low pressure therefore will be traveling from the Northeast out to sea, helping to chill the region.

A very active hurricane season correlates with colder winters in the Northeast. The 2005 hurricane season (June 1 through Nov. 30) has been especially active, suggesting that the Northeast is in store for a severe winter, as there appears to be a connection between high-volume Atlantic hurricane seasons and very cold winters in the region.

Cold Canadian air will cool the Northeast. Meteorologists are predicting that cold Canadian air will be displaced farther south than occurs in a typical winter, providing additional impetus for cooler temperatures.

Pacific Ocean water temperatures will not help moderate Northeast winter weather. Abnormal water temperatures off the eastern Pacific coastline have a moderating effect on Northeast winters. This is true of both colder-than-normal waters (La Nina) and warmer-than-normal waters (El Nino). This year, water temperatures across the Pacific are expected to average close to normal, which will not help mitigate other factors that would contribute to a cold winter.

While the Northeast could be contending with a severe winter, the middle of the country should experience typical winter temperature ranges. The western U.S. is forecast to have a warmer-than-usual winter, with eastern California, Nevada, Utah, and southern Idaho and Oregon projected to average 3-4[degrees] above normal.

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