Tsunami earthquake location was foretold

The location of the Dec. 26, 2004, earthquake that unleashed a devastating tsunami across the Indian Ocean was identified--in a 10-year forecast of likely earthquake sites worldwide--almost two weeks before the tragedy by researchers at the University of California, Davis, Center for Computational Science and Engineering.

They used records of past earthquakes of magnitude 5 and greater and computer models to produce a map that shows "hotspots," where earthquakes of magnitude 7 or higher are likely to occur. Of 38 large earthquakes worldwide since 2000, 30 have occurred directly on or within the margin of error identified by the forecast. The Dec. 26 magnitude 9 event struck off the coast of Indonesia.

"These results indicate that the technique developed by our group can successfully identify the locations for 80 to 90% of future large earthquakes over time periods of up to a decade or so," maintains John Rundle, director of the Center. The information could allow governments and agencies to make informed decisions about where to locate critical infrastructure and supplies, and to set priorities for allocating resources for emergencies or carrying out seismic strengthening and retrofits.

While the 10-year forecasts could aid disaster preparation, they are not yet focused enough in time to give actual earthquake warnings. Future work on computational methods, together with the use of specialized radar satellites that can make very precise measurements of ground movements, could be used to enhance future forecasts, Rundle feels.

"We can't prevent these devastating events, but we can provide tools so that people can take steps to reduce the potential damage and loss of life," Rundle says. Starting from identified hotspots, scientists also could use computer models to predict how earthquake-generated shaking would move through the ground, or how and where tsunamis might travel over the ocean.

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