FORMULA: Falcons will be super

The Packers weren't the only ones to lose to the Broncos in last year's Super Bowl. The Formula, which had a more impressive career record than Mike Holmgren, took it on the chin, too.

It was the first loss for The Formula since it was created before Super Bowl 24 in January 1990. There was one projected tie along the way, so The Formula had nailed seven in a row before being upended by Terrell Davis.

But you can't say The Formula didn't learn its lesson.

We took it into the shop for a much-needed overhaul, and the old Formula has gone the way of the vinyl LP. The shiny, sleek model known as Formula II makes its debut for Super Bowl 33. But Formula II will be the old and discarded Formula II if it suffers another embarrassing defeat. So with its glorious history on the line, Formula II makes the following bold projection.

The Falcons will win. Here's why:

The categories that have been removed from the old Formula were the two that awarded points based on recent Super Bowl performances (a third category--better won-lost record--also was dropped). These are the ones that were exposed as inappropriate when the Broncos won their first title by knocking off the defending champion Packers.

I hadn't liked these categories for a long time but had been reluctant to change since The Formula kept winning. But they were the only two statistics that did not relate to a particular team's performance that season.

I also found that going back through all the Super Bowls, removing these two categories would make only one correct prediction (Dallas over Buffalo in Super Bowl 28) incorrect. That's offset by last year's outcome because the Broncos had the overall edge over the Packers in the other relevant categories.

As long as The Formula was up on blocks, I decided to add a category related to turnovers, which had become increasingly relevant.

The final totals for Formula II--Atlanta 45, Denver 35. As always, that's not a projected score, but in today's high-octane NFL, it could be. But the Falcons rate the edge over the Broncos in seven of 13 categories including the most significant--run defense.

Denver was very good against the run this season, and the Broncos showed that again in the AFC championship game--holding Curtis Martin to 14 yards. At 3.6 per carry, the Broncos were tied for sixth in the league, but Atlanta at 3.3 was No. 2. That's worth 10 points to the Falcons' Formula total.

Actually, it could have been more one-sided for the Falcons. Two of the statistics in which Denver earned points--most rushes and fewest rushes allowed--were very close. Denver had 525 rushes, the Falcons had 516. The Broncos allowed 356 carries to the Falcons' 361.

If you don't know why those categories should favor Denver, you haven't been paying attention to past Formula stories--teams that hold the edge with those numbers do very well in Super Bowls.

But the Falcons' defense gave up fewer points and fewer rushing touchdowns, which earns them significant points and also at least gives them a chance to slow Davis.

In the new turnover margin category, the Falcons pick up six points because they led the NFL in takeaways with a plus-20 mark. The Broncos were plus-10.

So it's up to the Dirty Birds now. They've been given the nod by the new and improved Formula II. There isn't a Formula III in the works and a two-year losing streak will not be tolerated. Here's hoping Dan Reeves and Co. can handle the pressure of knowing that the survival of this valued statistical institution is in their hands.

The Formula was created by Tim Cowlishaw, a sportswriter for the Dallas Morning News.

The Formula

Category           Falcons   Broncos   Comment

Defensive rush       10         0      Falcons were NFL's
 avg. per carry                         second best.

Net kick-punt         0         8      Broncos were
 return TDs                             slightly better.

Most rushing          0         8      Davis has established
 attempts                               himself as the best.

Fewest defensive      0         8      Marginal edge
 rushes                                 to Denver.

Points                7         0      Falcons surrendered
 allowed                                20 fewer points.

Rush TBs              7         0      Falcons gave up one
 allowed                                less TD on ground.

Net penalty           7         0      Broncos had more than
  yards                                 their share of flags.

Sacks                 0         6      Broncos better at bringing
                                        the heat

Turnovers             6         0      Falcons had NFLs
                                        best margin.
Fewest pass
 attempts             5         0      Falcons rely
                                        less on air.
Rushing average
 per carry            0         3      Terrell shines
                                        once more.
Yards per pass
attempt               3         0      Chandler was outstanding
                                        this season.
Completion
 percentage           0         2      Elway's passes
                                        more on target.

Totals               45        35      Falcons break through in
                                        the first Super Bowl trip.

COPYRIGHT 1999 Sporting News Publishing Co.
COPYRIGHT 2008 Gale, Cengage Learning