It'll be a mad, mad market for management: all teams that plan to hire new managers and G.M.s are hereby reminded to conduct background checks on candidates, lest they wind up with anothery Wally Backman

Ken Rosenthal

The free-agent players' market doesn't look terribly exciting this offseason, but managers and general managers figure to be hired and fired at a frenetic pace. Just consider the teams most likely to make changes--ranked in order--and remember, the managers list could grow if some poor sap turns into the 2005 version of Grady Little in October.

Don't forget about these guys

Desperately seeking a new manager or G.M.? Several intriguing candidates are out of baseball or working in diminished roles.

G.M.s

1 Diamondbacks. Interim G.M. Bob Gebhard and scouting director Mike Rizzo are candidates but this could be Dan Duquette's reward for opening the Red Sox's vault for Manny Ramirez when owner Jeff Moored was Ramirez's agent.

2 Yankees. This should be it for Brian Cashman. One G.M. envisions Jim Bowden returning to the Yankees, for whom he worked in 1989, then reuniting with Lou Piniella, his manager with the Reds.

3 Orioles. Co-G.M.s Jim Beattie and Mike Ranagan hired former manager Lee Mazzilli and failed to upgrade the team's starting pitching. Beattle likely would be the odd man out; the question is how much power Flanagan would retain.

4 Devil Rays. Believe it or not, Chuck LaMar should be safe as long as the ownership stalemate continues. The moment Stuart Sternberg takes control from Vince Naimoli, LaMar will be gone.

5 Nationals. Jim Bowden isn't a lock to stay once the franchise gets sold--not when the team could finish last in the N.L East and Cashman or former Astros G.M. Gerry Hunsicker could be had.

6 Reds, The team's improvement under interim manager Jerry Narron could be enough to save Dan O'Brien. Owner Carl Lindner wouldn't be keen on paying off the final year of O'Brien's contract.

7 Royals. Allard Baird is signed through 2006; but how can ownership justify keeping him? The Royals are headed for their second straight 100-loss season and their third in four years.

8 Mariners. Attendance has dropped by nearly 1 million in the past four seasons, and the team is headed for its second straight last-place finish under Bill Bavasi despite an $85.9 million payroll.

9 Phillies. Team president Dave Montgomery is both loyal and methodical; barring a September

Gerry Hunsicker. The former Astros G.M. likely is energized after a year away from owner Drayton McLane. His name could surface with the Nationals, Diamondbacks and Devil Rays.

Pat Gillick. Life is Unfair, Example 6,074: The Devil Rays' Chuck LaMar currently is employed as a G.M.; Gillick is not.collapse, Ed Wade looks safe.

MANAGERS

1 Devil Rays. Does anyone seriously believe Leu Piniella will return?

2 Cubs. Enough with the false claims of devotion on both sides; Dusty Baker needs to go. The Tribune Co. won't want to pay off the final year of his contract but could allow Baker--wink, wink--to pursue another job.

3 Pirates. Lloyd McClendon is not without positive attributes, but G.M. Dave Littlefield needs to save his own job. Given the club's influx of young talents, the right choice would be a manager with a strong background in player development.

4 Dodgers. It's doubtful G.M. Paul DePodesta ever will get comfortable with Jim Tracy. Angels pitching coach Bud Black and A's bullpen coach Bob Geren are alternatives. Tracy, a native of Hamilton, Ohio, could fit in with the Reds.

5 Madins. Owner Jeffrey Loria loves Jack McKeon, but the rumblings about McKeon's status almost certainly will resume if the Marlins fail to reach the postseason.

6 Yankees. Anything is possible if the Yankees miss the postseason, even if George Steinbrenner owes Joe Torre $6.1 million next season and $7 million in 2007.

7 Tigers. Alan Trammell is not the reason for the team's sudden fade but because of increased expectations, the pressure on him is mounting.

8 Nationals. A new owner and a new G.M. could translate to a different role for Frank Robinson.

9 Orioles. Sam Periozzo is a good bet for an extension, but owner Peter Angelos might prefer a bigger name as he competes for fans with the Nationals. Jim Leyland would be intriguing; he badly wants to manage again.

10 Reds. Jerry Narron deserves to return; the team began the week 19-9 since the All-Star break.

11 A'S. Ken Macha, in the final year of his contract, could pursue other opportunities if the A's lowball him; More likely, he'll be back.

12 Diamoltdbacks. Any offseason change is unlikely, but Bob Melvin will become vulnerable the moment a new G.M. takes over.

Jim Leyland. The Orioles are but one possibility. The Tigers could be another viable option for Leyland, who would want a chance to win and the opportunity to remain close to his Pittsburgh home.

Jim Fregosi. He's a favorite of scouts and certain executives, who contend Fregosi would be better than all but a handful of current managers.

Grady Little. Some low-revenue team would look very smart for hiring him.

Larry Bowa. Pitching coach Joe Kerrigan might have been the bigger problem in Philadelphia. It's not out of the question that Bowa will get another shot.--K.R.

speed reads

Flunking a steroids test is inexcusable, particularly in baseball's current climate, but it stands to reason that some player eventually will be the victim of contamination or a false positive result. Mistakes do occur, and though the union's stubbornness on testing remains exasperating, it plays an important advocacy role, helping protect players' rights.

Personality quirks and all, Manny Ramirez is starting to look like the clear choice as American League MVP. Ramirez began the week with a .854 slugging percentage with runners in scoring Position--86 points higher than the majors' next-closest hitter, Gary Sheffield. Ramirez's career mark with RISP entering the season was .604. Barry Bonds' is .592.

As frightening as the Carlos Beltran-Mike Cameron collision was for the Mets, right fielder Victor Diaz is likely to demonstrate once again that he can be just as productive a hitter as Cameron, if not a better one. The Mets' reluctance to trade Cameron for bullpen help was curious when they had a younger, cheaper right fielder on hand.

INSIDE DISH

Even if Peter Angelos decides to sell the Orioles, he isn't known for closing deals quickly. Angelos is an exacting negotiator, and an industry source says he's placing an "irrational" value on the franchise because of the MLB-assisted creation of a new regional sports network that the Orioles largely control. The network, however, won't realize its full potential until Angelos cuts a distribution deal with Comcast, with whom he is feuding. * Why is Reds owner Carl Lindner adamant about keeping CF Ken Griffey? "Because he wants to win," says a source with insight into Lindner's mind-set. Lindner also might be reluctant to trade Griffey while 51.5 percent of the club is for sale, but someone needs to explain to Lindner that the franchise will benefit if it finds a trade partner who will assume a significant portion of Griffey's salary through 2008 and offers a quality prospect or two in return. * Padres G.M Kevin Towers says C Miguel Olivo has been "incredible" since arriving from the Mariners, but scouts are more reserved. "He doesn't throw anywhere near where he used to," one says. "Everyone is enamored when they first get a guy like that. Wait until they live with him for a while." The scout says Olivo lacks the aptitude to be a viable replacement for Ramon Hernandez, a potential free agent. That could leave the Padres with a hole; they're more likely to re-sign Brian Giles than Hernandez. * Rather than return RHP Curt Schilling to their rotation, the Red Sox are more likely to keep him in their bullpen; otherwise, they would be counting on both Schilling and their closer, RHP Keith Foulke, to regain their 2004 forms while coming off injuries--and banking on a shaky relief corps to bridge the sixth and seventh innings. RHP Bronson Arroyo also could move to the bullpen for the postseason, leaving a rotation of RHP Matt Clement, LHP David Wells, RHP Tim Wakefield and RHP Wade Miller. The Sox likely will use Miller (shoulder) judiciously after he comes off the D.L. so he can be sharp for October. * An executive calls Braves OF Jeff Francoeur "the closest thing to Vlad Guerrero that you're going to see;' chuckling about the rookie's tendency to swing at everything yet consistently make hard contact. Guerrero began the week averaging 3.28 pitches per plate appearance, third lowest in the majors among qualifiers for the batting title behind Yankees 2B Robinson Cano and Angels LF Garret Anderson. Francoeur was averaging 3.28 pitches per plate appearance and didn't draw a walk in his first 99 trips to the plate. * Of the Dodgers' top prospects, Class AA C Russell Martin appears the closest to the majors; one scout monitoring their system says he's "a lot better" than C Dioner Navarro, whom the team recently promoted to L.A. The scout says Martin is better at hitting, throwing and blocking balls and also offers superior toughness and Jason Varitek-type leadership. The Dodgers, however, remain high on Navarro, who is a switch hitter and still only 21. At least one executive considers Angels C Bengie Molina an underrated player, saying, "When he doesn't play, you notice it." Molina, who will be a free agent at the end of the season, has better career numbers with runners in scoring position than he does with no one on base. Devil Rays OF Jonny Gomes has displayed stunning power, hitting 15 home runs in his first 197 at-bats, but he figures to be squeezed next season by the arrival of top prospect Delmon Young. Gomes could become the team's DH or possibly be traded for pitching; the Royals have shown interest.

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