Chances are

CHANCES ARE: The human mind isn't very good at calculating the odds of danger. When asked how much risk of a terrorist attack they would they be willing to take before canceling a pleasure trip, more than half of respondents said they wouldn't go if the odds were higher than one in 100,000. Given that level of risk avoidance, people should not drive, walk the streets or hold a job, according to Richard Restak (Poe's Heart and the Mountain Climber, Harmony Books).

The mind also tends to exaggerate the likelihood of rare dangerous experiences--and fears are often enhanced by media attention. A few years ago swimmers on the East Coast stayed out of the water for fear of shark attacks, though the chance of an attack was one in 94,900,000. Swimmers faced a greater chance of death from skin cancer, drowning or being struck by lightning.

COPYRIGHT 2005 The Christian Century Foundation
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