Mainline births

MICHAEL HOUT, Andrew Greeley and Melissa Wilde present a fascinating hypothesis in "Birth dearth?" (Oct. 4)--that the numerical decline of mainline churches is due primarily to falling birthrates. A few more details would enable a reader to evaluate the accuracy of their conclusions. For example, the authors give a brief list of mainline and conservative denominations--a list that appears to have excluded evangelical churches, many of which are nondenominational, as well as historically African-American churches.

Their methodology also appears to have overlooked the places where "conservative" and "mainline" labels may overlap. The current debates in mainline churches over theology show a significant conservative presence in those denominations.

The authors also assume that mainline and conservative churches retain their children at the same rates, without showing evidence to back this assumption. Their article includes two contradictory statements--that their model "predicted that the mainline decline would level off ten to 15 years before it did" and that the "Protestant population will continue to shift in the conservative direction for many years to come." If the conservative shift continues for many years, that implies that the mainline decline has not leveled off in which case the authors' model will continue to be in error as the years pass.

Bob Smietana

Wildwood, Ill.

Michael Hout et al. reply:

Our article summarizes work that we report in full detail in a 32-page academic paper in the American Journal of Sociology (Sept. 2001). A list of denominations studied--over 200--is available at http://sda.berkeley.edu (click on "archive").

We do not assume that mainline and conservative churches retain their children at the same rates. Our model incorporates fluctuating retention rates that differ both between the denominational groups and over time. As to predictions, our model and the data show a leveling off of the cohort trend. But those cohorts are still quite young; that implies continued conservative growth in real time until the last members of the cohorts in question have died.

COPYRIGHT 2006 The Christian Century Foundation
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