New military transport aviation for Russia

Military Thought,  March-April, 2003  by Yu.N. Pluzhnikov,  A.G. Tsymbalov

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Military transport aircraft of Russia's Air Force and other agencies include at the present time strategic (heavy lifter long-range) military transport aircraft (military transports) An-22, An-124 (in the Air Force only); operational-strategic (heavy) I1-76 M (TD, MD) military transport aircraft; operational-tactical (medium-range) An-12 military transports of various modifications; tactical (small) An-26, An-32, An-72, An-74 military transports; utility An-2 aircraft. Most military transports are found in the RF Air Force military transport aviation. All the aircraft of the above types entered service in the 1960s and 1970s and a considerable number of them will be retired in a few years upon completion of their useful life and owing to being unsafe in light of today's safety requirements. An-22 and An-124 strategic military transports will be retired owing to their mechanical condition between 2010 and 2012. Operational-strategic I1-76 M (TD, MD) aircraft are likely to be also retired unless they are given upgrading. Comprehensive upgrading can extend their useful life for another 10-15 years, or until 2020-2025.

An even worse crisis is shaping up in Russia's military and civilian aviation because 2005-2006 is when the most numerous An-12 medium-range transport aircraft of various modifications (counting in the An-8, they number more than 1,300) reach the end of their useful life. By early 2003, approximately 200 of such aircraft were in operation. What is even worse is that the obsolete I1-76, An-26, An-32, An-72 and An-74 aircraft of various modifications currently in operation do not meet modern economic standards. For example, the I1-76 burns on average 9 metric tons of fuel per one hour in flight. This is more than twice the amount burnt by modern transport aircraft in this class in other countries.

At the same time, transportation by air in Russia tends to grow in the wake of the sharp decline in 1994. According to Federal Aviation Service forecasts, it will reach 150 percent of the 1990 peak by the year 2005. The 1990 success can be doubled by 2020-2025. According to forecasts, the cargo-carrying capacity of military transport aviation will also grow to reach by 2005 almost 10,000 metric tons and 12,000 metric tons by 2025-2030. This amount of freight can be carded only by affect of new-generation military transport aviation aircraft. It has to be created within the period needed for retiring all currently operating aircraft whose carrying capacity will be phased out as follows: 7,000 tons in 2010; 4,000 tons in 2015; none in 2020.

Analysis of the amount of cargo carried by civilian and military aircraft (total cargo turnover) in Russia shows, according to the State Civil Aviation Research Institute, that up to 75 percent of all cargo is carried over distances between 1,000 and 5,000 km (an area most suitable for employing medium-range transport aircraft). It is quite obvious that in the absence of medium-range transport aircraft in the RF Defense Ministry the bulk of military cargoes will have to be carded, three to four years from now, by I1-76 heavy transport aircraft at a considerably higher cost if we employ modern medium-range transport aircraft.

Based on this fact, we can conclude that between 2005 and 2006 the Russian military will first of all need a new (medium) operational-tactical military transports and a fleet of such aircraft will handle two thirds of all military air transportation operations. Carrying cargoes over distances in excess of 5,000 km (up to a quarter of all transportation operations) takes a heavy transport aircraft and a light transport aircraft for distances of at least 1,000 km (very nearly a tenth of all transportation operations).

Thus, it is advisable for Russia's military transport aviation to include a mixed fleet of military transports comprised of operational-strategic aircraft (adapted heavy transport aircraft I1-76TD (MD) and the I1-76MF being adopted into operational service), operational-tactical aircraft (medium-range transport aircraft), and tactical aircraft (light transport aircraft). The number of aircraft in each class is determined by their share of the calculated amount of air cargo to be carded.

Considering that the average load of a heavy transport aircraft is rarely more than 20-25 tons (i.e., it is comparable with the modern load of a modern medium transport aircraft), heavy transports carry roughly half the volume of cargoes carded by medium transports, and the average duration of one heavy transport run under the same cruising conditions is twice the average duration of one medium transport run, we can say that Russia's mixed military transport aircraft force should have approximately equal numbers of medium and heavy transport aircraft.

Unlike the problem of changing over to a new heavy transport aircraft, the problem of equipping the RF military with a new medium military transport aircraft calls for urgent solution. The possible options are: to import the aircraft; to develop and put in regular production a new Russian medium military transport aircraft; to intensively upgrade the currently operational An-12 aircraft; to upgrade a developed (or being developed) standard Russian civilian medium-range transport aircraft to meet the RF military's requirements.